Event:
Recently, China Automobile Association released automobile production and sales data in February 2022.
Comments:
From January to February, the cumulative automobile production and sales increased year-on-year, and the inventory improved greatly in February. The production and sales of automobiles in February were 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and 18.7% respectively, and a month on month decrease of 25.1% and 31.4% respectively. The month on month decrease was mainly affected by the number of days in February and the Spring Festival. From January to February, the automobile production and sales volume were 4.235 million and 4.268 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and 7.5% respectively. In terms of passenger cars, the production and sales of passenger cars in February were 1.534 million and 1.487 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32% and 27.8% respectively, and a month on month decrease of 26.14% and 31.98% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of passenger cars were 3.612 million and 3.674 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and 14.4% respectively. The continuous improvement of chip supply and the demand for replenishment have led to the improvement of automobile production and sales year-on-year data. In February, 160000 luxury cars were retailed, down 3% year-on-year and 44% month on month; Retail sales of 540000 self owned brands increased by 14% year-on-year and decreased by 42% month on month; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 550000 vehicles, down 1% year-on-year and 36% month on month. In February, the retail share of independent brands in China was 44%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3pct; From January to February, the cumulative share was 44%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7pct. In February, the manufacturer’s inventory increased by 40000 units month on month, decreased by 80000 units from January to February, decreased by 180000 units compared with the same period of last year, and the manufacturer’s inventory improved greatly; The inventory coefficient of dealers was 1.85, which was above the warning line for the first time since the second half of last year.
In February, new energy vehicles maintained a high growth trend year-on-year, and the penetration rate increased compared with the previous month. In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2 times, down 18.6% and 22.5% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 820000 and 765000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February were 354000 and 321000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2 times and a month-on-month decrease of 19% and 23% respectively. In February, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19%, an increase of 2pct over the previous month, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 21.6%, an increase of 2.4pct over the previous month. In February, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 41.9%, that of luxury vehicles was 17.4%, and that of mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.5%.
The sales toughness of the head car enterprises is strong. In February, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) sold 322000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, including 45300 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) sold 143500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, including 10500 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 166.7% Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) sales volume was 70800, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, including 6565 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11% Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) sold 138100 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 15%. In terms of new energy vehicle enterprises, also affected by the number of days in February and the Spring Festival, the sales volume generally decreased significantly month on month, but the year-on-year growth momentum is still good. In February, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles was 88300, with a year-on-year increase of 752.6% and a month on month decrease of 5.2%; Tesla China sold 56500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 208.5% and a month on month decrease of 5.6%; The sales volume of new forces such as Xiaopeng, ideal, Nezha and Zero run maintained a high growth year-on-year, while the growth rate of Weilai is still relatively backward. North South Volkswagen sold 11900 new energy vehicles, accounting for 58% of the mainstream joint venture.
Investment suggestion: the continuous improvement of chip supply and the demand for replenishment drive the good growth of automobile production and sales from January to February. It is expected that the overall automobile production and sales will pick up, Q1 is expected to achieve moderate growth, and the competitiveness of independent brands in China will be improved. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued the high growth momentum, and the penetration rate continued to rise. With the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, the prices of new energy vehicles have increased one after another. The impact on subsequent orders needs to be further observed, but it is not expected to have a significant impact. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the global automobile industry chain, and the suspension of many overseas automobile manufacturers has had a certain impact on the overseas business of some Chinese auto parts manufacturers. It is suggested to focus on the transformation targets of benefiting vehicle electric intelligence from a medium and long-term perspective: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ).
Risk tips: the production and sales of cars are less than expected, the improvement of chip supply is less than expected, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has an impact on the global automobile industry chain, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, and the safety risk of electric vehicles.
