The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be implemented in 2022, exceeding market expectations. 1) In 2022, the subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will decline by 30% compared with that in 2021. For vehicles that meet the requirements in urban public transport, road passenger transport, leasing (including online car Hailing), sanitation and other public areas, the subsidy standard will decline by 20% on the basis of 2021, and it is clear that the subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will end at the end of 2022. 2) One of the higher than expected, the subsidy policy in 2021 requires the upper limit of subsidy scale to be 2 million vehicles (actually not implemented), and the subsidy policy in 2022 does not require the upper limit of subsidy scale. 3) Second, the current technical indicators and threshold requirements for purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2022, which is conducive to the continued impulse of low-end new energy vehicles. 4) We raised the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 to 5.67 million (previously expected 4.84 million, an increase of about 17%), including 5.28 million passenger vehicles, with a penetration rate of 23%; 390000 commercial vehicles, with a penetration rate of 8%.
In December, the delivery of new forces continued to rise, and Tesla Q4 delivered 308600 vehicles worldwide. 1) Xiaopeng delivered 16000 vehicles in December, 180.7% year-on-year and 2.5% month on month; 98000 vehicles were delivered throughout the year, 263.0% year-on-year; Among them, 7459 vehicles were delivered from P7 in December and 60000 vehicles were delivered from January to December. 2) Weilai delivered 10489 vehicles, 49.7% year-on-year and – 3.6% month on month; 91000 vehicles were delivered throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 109.1%; 3) 14087 vehicles are expected to be delivered in December, 130.0% year-on-year and 4.5% month on month; 90000 vehicles were delivered throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 177.4%. 4) In December, Nezha, Zero run and extreme krypton delivered 10127, 7807 and 3796 vehicles respectively, with a month on month ratio of 1.1%, 38.7% and 88.7% respectively. 5) Tesla announced the delivery data of 2021q4. 308600 vehicles were delivered in Q4, reaching a new high, of which 11750 vehicles were delivered in S / X and 296900 vehicles were delivered in 3 / Y; 936200 vehicles were delivered in 2021, 25000 in S / X and 911200 in 3 / y.
In the first four weeks of the conference, the wholesale sales were 15% month on month and the retail sales were 24% month on month. From the perspective of wholesale, the average daily sales in the first four weeks were 46000, 62000, 72000 and 85000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.0%, – 3.1%, 4.6% and 27.0% respectively. In the fourth week, it expanded significantly year-on-year; On the first four Sundays of December, 68000 vehicles were approved for sale, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% and a month on month growth of 15%, which turned positive year on year, far exceeding the seasonality, reflecting the timely replenishment after the mitigation of “core shortage”. From the perspective of retail, the average daily sales volume in the first four weeks were 40000, 53000, 67000 and 82000 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 16.5%, – 7.0%, – 8.3% and 6.2% respectively. In the fourth week, it became positive year-on-year, reflecting the improvement of demand; The chain ratios were 1%, 17%, 38% and 26% respectively; The average retail sales in the first four Sundays of December was 62000, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.5% and a month on month increase of 24%.
Investment suggestions: 1) continue to be optimistic about auto parts and pay attention to: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Intelligent driving industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optical technology, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ; 2) The trend of independent rise is clear. The vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued value Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
