Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: zero interest rate on bills
Event: since December 21, the bill discount interest rate has declined rapidly. On December 23, the discount rate of one-month state-owned bank notes was 0.0061%, that of three-month notes was 0.007%, and that of six-month notes was 0.0802%.
In 2021, the bill rediscount interest rate changed frequently, and the bill rediscount interest rate continued to decline. By the end of December, the discount interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m bills were close to 0. We believe that there are two factors:
The financing demand of enterprises is insufficient, and the supervision has the requirement of steady growth. Since this year, affected by the epidemic and economy, the operation of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households has remained difficult. In addition, the urban investment and real estate policies have become stricter, and the overall financing demand is weak. From this year’s social finance data, the new medium and long-term loans of enterprises have turned negative year-on-year since July. Since this year, the central bank has repeatedly mentioned “enhancing the stability of total credit growth and increasing support for the real economy”. Therefore, in the case of weak corporate financing demand and low bank credit risk preference, banks have increased the scale of bill discount in order to meet the requirements of regulatory assessment.
The rhythm of bank credit. From the rhythm of bank credit supply over the years, based on the principle of “early delivery and early return”, banks tend to release more loans at the beginning of the year. By the end of the year, banks tend to release reserve projects at the beginning of the second year because the annual release task has been basically completed and considering the regulatory requirements for the increment of credit release, so there will be Bill impulse at the end of the year.
We believe that the “zero interest rate” of bills is a short-term phenomenon. From the perspective of 2022, on the one hand, based on the “good start” effect of banks at the beginning of the year, credit will be put in large quantities at the beginning of the year, and the phenomenon of bill impulse will be alleviated. On the other hand, with the accelerated implementation of infrastructure projects, marginal easing of real estate policies and the implementation of easing policies, the relevant credit demand is expected to gradually pick up, The demand for bill impulse is weakened, so the bill interest rate will gradually rise to the normal level.
Investment strategy: for banks, the change of bill rediscount interest rate in 2021 is frequent and the recent rapid decline indicates that in 2021, when the economic downward pressure is obvious and the regulation intensity is strong, the demand for corporate loans is weakened and the bank’s risk appetite is reduced, so that the loan delivery is not as expected. With the gradual implementation of loose policies, the demand for corporate loans is expected to be boosted. From the perspective of asset quality, under the background of steady growth and easing, the asset quality of banks has been optimized. Therefore, the current valuation of bank stocks is in the bottom range, and the investment value appears. Now is a good time for bank sector allocation. We suggest paying attention to two main lines:
Joint stock banks with dominant intermediary business, such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ;
Regional banks with prominent regional advantages, controllable bad debts and broad growth space, such as Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) .
Market review:
Performance of sector & individual stocks: this week, the banking sector fell – 0.88%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.27 percentage points. Banks ranked 27 / 30. Among them, state-owned banks fell 0.23%, joint-stock banks fell 1.56%, urban commercial banks fell 0.07%, and rural commercial banks rose 0.06%. In terms of specific stocks, Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) (+ 1.35%), Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) (+ 1.32%), Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) (+ 0.91%) led the increase, and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (- 4.79%), Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (- 3.41%) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (- 2.51%) fell the most.
Northward capital flow: northward capital has accumulated a net inflow of 14.669 billion yuan this week, a net purchase of 88.992 billion yuan this month, and a net purchase of 432.169 billion yuan since the beginning of the year. Among them, the cumulative net inflow of the banking sector this week was 15.92 yuan, ranking 3 / 30. In terms of specific stocks, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) received the most net purchases. In terms of the shareholding ratio of land stock link, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (9.14%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (7.32%), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (5.76%) land stock link holds the highest proportion of circulating a shares.
Risk tip: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; The global covid-19 epidemic continues to deteriorate.
