Focus this week: Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Shanghai Supezet Engineering Technology Corp.Ltd(688121) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) .
Core view of this week: continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy and other related equipment under the background of carbon neutralization, especially the equipment demand caused by the changes of materials and processes brought about by the upgrading of energy forms. Focus on carbon fiber, hydrogen storage and transportation and other fields.
Investment ideas for wind power casting and forging: look at the pricing principle and optimize the pattern. From the perspective of pricing principles: 1) the general cost plus model does not have the basis of high gross profit margin, while the customized attribute generally has the conditions of high gross profit margin, such as Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) precision mechanical parts business; 2) Looking at the pricing power of the industry, if the market share is high enough, it will also have the basis of high gross profit margin. For example, Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) the gross profit margin will increase year by year from 2018 to 2020, Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) because it can provide the advantage of large-diameter flange, it has a strong advantage in the field of sea breeze. From the perspective of market concentration: 1) casting link: China has the global voice, with a leading global share of about 16%. According to the calculation of 25 tons of castings required for 1MW fan and the estimation of global demand for 100gw, about 2.5 million tons of components are required, and the supply is mainly concentrated in China. The industry leader is Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , with a production capacity of 400000 tons by the end of 2020, accounting for about 16% of the global demand. The process design ability of castings determines the cost control level of castings, the control of product scrap rate has a great impact on the final profit margin, and the reasonable selection of machine tools has a great impact on the hourly rate and cost rate of processing; 2) Main link: China has a global voice, and the duopoly pattern is relatively stable. From the perspective of forging, under the assumption of about 6.5-7.5 tons (blank weight) of single megawatt spindle and 100gw of the world, about 700000 tons of forgings are required. In Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) 2020, the sales volume of wind turbine spindle will be 125000 tons, accounting for about 18% of the global share. Although Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) has not disclosed the sales volume data, its revenue of wind turbine spindle is 1.45 billion yuan, slightly higher than Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , It is roughly estimated that Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) has a slightly higher share of wind power spindles than Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , accounting for nearly 40% of the global total, which may also be one of the preconditions for Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) to adopt flexible pricing. 3) Flange link: the main production capacity is in China, and there are few enterprises with long diameter forging capacity. Generally, the diameter of land wind flange is 3-6M, and the diameter of sea wind is 5-9m. The ability to forge long meters is a manifestation of outstanding competitiveness.
Localization of spindle bearing: policy support + operator promotion, 5MW batch project has been implemented. At present, some Chinese enterprises can mass produce 3MW main shaft bearings (for example, Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) supplies to Xiangdian wind energy, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) and is recognized). Higher MW main shaft bearings are yet to be mass produced, which is also the general situation of Chinese wind power bearing enterprises. China's large-scale wind turbine is advancing at a fast pace (in 2015, the sales of 1.5MW models accounted for 59.7% of its total sales, and in 2017, the sales of 2S models accounted for 59.7%. It is expected that the sales of 3 / 4S models may become the mainstream from 2021 to 2022). Therefore, it is urgent to continuously break through the demand for large MW main shaft bearings. The manufacturing process of high-end bearings involves technical problems such as design, processing and testing and theoretical basis such as mechanics and tribology. The former requires long-term technical experience accumulation, while the latter requires a large number of high-quality talents, which cannot be realized in the short term. Therefore, Chinese enterprises need to be given a certain time to complete technology accumulation and talent training. Fortunately, national policies have been promoting the localization process. The terminal operation of wind power industry is dominated by central and state-owned enterprises, which is conducive to accelerating the localization of high-end bearings. For example, Huaneng Shengdong Rudong H3 offshore wind power project, which was intensively installed in May this year, is the first batch and large-scale offshore wind farm in China to apply 5MW domestic units. It is also the offshore wind farm with the highest degree of localization in China. The installed hz-171-5mw is realized and the parts are 100% domestic, The localization rate of all components and parts exceeds 50% (the main shaft bearing is applicable to Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) products, and the main beam carbon fiber blade uses Lori wind power products).
Risk tips: 1) the progress of domestic production is lower than expected; 2) Industry demand is lower than expected.
