Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the new energy subsidy policy will be implemented smoothly in 2022
Event: on December 31, the four ministries and commissions issued the notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. In 2022, the subsidy standard for non-public new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. The subsidy standard for vehicles in the public domain will decline by 20%, and the subsidy will be completely abolished in 2023.
comment:
The declining pace of subsidies is in line with expectations. 2022 is the last year for the steady exit of subsidies. The follow-up non subsidy policies such as double points will take over and promote the penetration of new energy vehicles. This adjustment is fully in line with the downslope rhythm plan proposed in 2020, and there is no adjustment. The double point transaction has been officially implemented, and the point price continues to rise, which will become the main driving force for automobile enterprises to produce and sell new energy vehicles in the future.
Car companies have many responses, and the terminal price fluctuates in the short term but is stable in the long term. Tesla, FAW Volkswagen, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other auto enterprises have taken measures to increase prices and make up the price difference after the decline of subsidies. The short-term terminal sales price may fluctuate, but with the gradual emergence of the scale effect of electric vehicles, the long-term terminal price is expected to be flat and stable.
There is no change in the subsidy for vehicles with short mileage. The medium and low-end models are still good, and they are optimistic about the performance of a00-a vehicles. With Byd Company Limited(002594) dolphin, Nezha V and other models facing the class a car market with a price of 80000-120000 gradually listed in 2022, the class a car market is expected to contribute considerable increment to the improvement of electric vehicle penetration.
Strengthen product safety supervision and guidance, ensure quality and information security, and pay attention to the impact of the introduction of new standards and regulations on incremental parts. Such as the standardization requirements for automotive electronic storage equipment, video acquisition equipment, T-box and other tools.
Generally speaking, the subsidy policy has completed its historical mission of cultivating the market in the early stage, and Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has nearly entered a period of rapid development. It is expected that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile will reach 5.5-6 million units in 2022.
Market review:
As of the closing on December 31, the auto sector was – 1.1%, and the CSI 300 index was + 0.4%. The increase of the auto sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.5 percentage points.
From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 26th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week, with poor performance during the week. YTD + 17.2%, ranking 7th among the 28 plates of Shenwan.
The weekly increases and decreases of sub sectors were passenger cars (- 1.2%), commercial trucks (- 0.7%), commercial buses (+ 2.5%), auto parts (- 1.4%), and auto services (+ 0.2%).
The year to date growth and decline of sub sectors are: passenger cars (+ 20%), commercial trucks (- 13.2%), commercial buses (- 28.8%), auto parts (+ 19.6%), and auto services (+ 9.9%).
Top five gainers and Losers: Ningbo Heli Technology Co.Ltd(603917) , Zotye Automobile Co.Ltd(000980) , Liaoning Sg Automotive Group Co.Ltd(600303) , Kuang-Chi Technologies Co.Ltd(002625) , Zhejiang Xiantong Rubber & Plastic Co.Ltd(603239) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Shanghai Carthane Co.Ltd(603037) , Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.Ltd(603586) , Ningbo Kbe Electrical Technology Co.Ltd(300863) , Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co.Ltd(603178) , St Tianyan.
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
Pay attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow rather than the companies whose valuations are repaired. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) ; High quality enterprises in the parts sector: Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , yingheng technology, etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and marketing fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) .
Recommended combinations this week: Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 20%, Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
