This week’s view
The overall PV index rose by 7.68% this week, showing a positive signal for the first time after a long consolidation. The price of silicon material fell for four consecutive weeks, close to the critical value of 230000 yuan / ton, corresponding to 1.8 yuan / W components, and the relationship between supply and demand improved significantly. The market expects that the missing demand in the fourth quarter will be released significantly in the first quarter, forming a prosperous situation in the off-season. At the same time, the corresponding 22-year valuation of the leading PV sector is only 30 times. Both from the perspective of supply and demand and valuation, after half a year of shock, it is now in a reasonable range, and the logical inflection point has emerged.
In the second half of 2021, the main contradiction of photovoltaic is demand, while the demand for lithium batteries is strong in 22 years, with a growth rate of 50%, and the main contradiction is the leading valuation. However, after several months of consolidation, the corresponding valuation of the leading new energy vehicles is generally 40-50 times in 22 years and about 30 times in 23 years, which is lower than the adjustment in early 21 and basically falls into a reasonable range. What the market needs is the continuously verified downstream performance growth. Therefore, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December and the subsequent annual report forecast may become the key for the new energy sector to get rid of the quagmire. At present, the overall plate has been in a more reasonable range, only one foot away from the door.
Market performance
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60% to close at 3639.78; CSI 300 rose 0.39% to close at 4940.37; CITIC power new energy industry index rose 2.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.56%. In terms of sub sectors, the new energy vehicle index rose by 1.25%, the photovoltaic index rose by 7.68% and the wind power index rose by 0.73%.
Some company dynamics
On the evening of December 30, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) announced that the public offering of convertible corporate bonds has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The convertible corporate bonds issued this time are referred to as “long 22 convertible bonds” for short, and the bond code is “113053”. The initial conversion price of the convertible bonds issued this time is 82.65 yuan / share. The priority placement date of the original shareholders of the convertible bond issuance and the online subscription date are both January 5, 2022 (t day), the placement code is “764012”, the placement is referred to as “Longji bond distribution”, and the online subscription time is 9:30 ~ 11:30 and 13:00 ~ 15:00 on t day. (company announcement)
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) it was announced in the evening of December 28 that the company plans to invest in the construction of 200000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte project in Sihui City, Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province by setting up a wholly-owned subsidiary. According to the plan, the total investment of the project is about 820 million yuan, and the construction period is 12 months. It is expected to achieve an average annual operating income of 550 million yuan and an average annual net profit of about 300 million yuan. After the completion of the project, it will meet the needs of the company’s future business development and market expansion in South China, help to continuously strengthen the company’s advantages in raw material transportation cost, supply cycle and quality assurance, and continuously improve its market competitiveness. (company announcement)
Risk statement
The risk of intensified market competition, repeated epidemic and subsidy policy.
