Power investment energy ( Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) )
Event: the company issued the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. The company expects that from January to February 2022, the company will realize an operating revenue of about 4.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 25.8%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.03 billion yuan, an increase of about 80.2% year-on-year; We believe that the main reason is that the price of coal and electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly.
Coal: the benchmark price of the long-term agreement was raised, and the company's selling price rose simultaneously. In terms of price, the price of the long-term agreement in January and February 2022 is implemented according to the price of the long-term agreement in December 2021 (725 yuan / ton), which is much higher than the same period last year and the average level. The company's coal sales are carried out in accordance with the annual production and marketing plan and strictly implement the sales of the long-term association. Under the background of the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association, the company's profits will be more stable and favorable for the long-term development of good performance. In addition, the company sits on two ten million ton high-efficiency open-pit mines, and the cost per ton of coal is superior to others. Because the coal mining cost is mostly limited by resource endowment, other competitors cannot copy it. Therefore, the company has the advantage of building a natural moat with extremely low mining cost. The company's main customers are highly dependent on the company's products, and the company has the advantage of transportation distance and regional barriers. Under the background of the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand in Jilin and Liaoning, the company has benefited significantly.
Electrolytic aluminum: the price of aluminum is high, and the synergy promotes the release of performance. Due to the tight global supply and demand pattern and the restoration of pessimistic expectations of China's real estate consumption, the spot settlement price of LME aluminum increased by 22.5% in the first two months of 2022. The average price in the first two months was 3132 yuan / ton, 370 yuan / ton higher than the average price of Q4 in 2021 and 1036 yuan / ton higher than the average price of Q1 in 2021, promoting the release of the performance of the company's electrolytic aluminum sector. Huo meihongjun of the company has an electrolytic aluminum production line with an annual capacity of 860000 tons. At the same time, it has its own power plant, equipped with self provided thermal power units with an installed capacity of 1.8 million KW and 400000 kW wind power units, which can basically meet the power demand; Among them, the coal for thermal power is sold internally by the company, and the synergy benefit is remarkable. In the future: in China, the epidemic situation in production areas and environmental inspection are still the factors restricting the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production. Under the low level of social library, the demand is slightly driven, and the aluminum price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Overseas, the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to soaring energy prices, and a large number of aluminum plants in Europe have been forced to reduce production and stop production. Under the tightening of supply and demand, aluminum prices remain high; Russia itself is the largest producer of aluminum ingots in the world, while the United States may further aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand of aluminum ingots.
The transformation and upgrading of wind power projects will not stop. In March 2022, the company invested in the construction of 100MW roof distributed photovoltaic project in Yuci District, Jinzhong City and 400MW wind power project in Alxa base of Shanghai Miao Shandong UHV transmission channel, with a total installed capacity of 500MW of new green power. As of March 2022, the company has 1.6gw of green power in operation. In addition, the company still has 1675.3mw photovoltaic, 3065.5mw wind power and 626mw scenery projects under construction and planning, with a total installed capacity of 5366.8mw, an increase of 335.4%, and great growth potential. After the new production capacity is put into operation, the proportion of new energy installed capacity of the company will continue to increase, the power installed capacity structure will continue to be optimized, promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, improve the core competitiveness of enterprises, and lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of the company.
Investment advice. The company is the leader of Mengdong lignite, with coal as the core, aluminum, electricity and new energy as the focus, and capital operation as the platform to build a comprehensive energy enterprise with core competitiveness. The company vigorously develops new wind power, green power in operation 1.6gw, under construction + planning 5GW +, and new energy transformation is ready to go. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.56 billion yuan, 6.36 billion yuan and 6.94 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.85 yuan, 3.31 yuan and 3.61 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 8.2, 4.6 and 4.2, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the production of projects under construction is less than expected, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption is less than expected, and the coal price has fallen sharply.
