Zhou viewpoint
1. New energy vehicles
Release of financial subsidy policy for promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022
We believe that, according to the policy requirements, the decline rate of subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2022 is consistent with the established objectives, in line with expectations, and will promote the steady transition of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles. According to the current subsidy policy, the state's subsidy support for new energy vehicles will end at the end of 2022. With the continuous decline of subsidies, the role of the policy in promoting the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales has gradually weakened, and the expansion of demand has become the main driving force for the expansion of sales. According to GGII data, in November 2021, the insured volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) non operating vehicles was 321000, accounting for 84.7%, with a month on month increase of 0.2pct; From January to November 2021, the total number of insured vehicles for non business use reached 2149000, accounting for 85.4% of the total number of insured vehicles. The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales are driven by the C-end, and the demand structure is healthy. It is expected that the expansion of demand will continue to drive the growth of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales.
In 2021, the annual delivery volume of many new forces in China increased significantly
We believe that according to the disclosed data, the delivery of electric vehicles by new forces car enterprises in December 2021 performed well, and the monthly delivery of Xiaopeng, ideal, Weilai and Nezha exceeded 10000 vehicles. Except Weilai, it increased month on month, and the growth was obvious. In terms of annual delivery volume, the delivery volume of China's new power auto enterprises has achieved year-on-year high-speed growth. The action plan for carbon peak before 2030 proposes that "the proportion of new energy and clean energy powered vehicles will reach about 40% by 2030", so as to further open the development space of new energy vehicles and promote the continuous growth of production and sales. The Chinese market is expected to enter the accelerated penetration stage of electrification and promote the continuous expansion of demand in the middle and upper reaches.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, supply will drive demand change, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) Leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang miniev and other models with best-selling potential;
2) Subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantages in the industry competition;
3) Cathode materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links that drive technological innovation and product iteration;
4) The demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased due to the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials has been continuously optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) The increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand. It is expected that the supply and demand is tight, such as diaphragm, copper foil and so on;
6) The accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the related targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;
7) Second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
8) Energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; And continuously improve the charging and replacement facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc.
2. New energy
The development of renewable energy by central enterprises is expected to accelerate
We believe that the overall investment cost of wind power and photovoltaic projects is high. At present, it is mainly large-scale and base development, which requires more initial investment. Each central power generation enterprise has the advantages of low financing cost and strong financial strength, and has become the main investment force of wind power, photovoltaic and other renewable energy power generation projects in China; This opinion defines the main objectives of the central enterprises in each stage, such as the comprehensive energy consumption per 10000 yuan output value, the reduction range of carbon dioxide emission per 10000 yuan output value and the proportion of installed capacity of renewable energy power generation. It has a strong guiding role and is expected to make a positive contribution to the goal of carbon neutralization. China's renewable energy dominated by photovoltaic and wind power is expected to benefit significantly.
Core view:
(1) Photovoltaic
In the short term, the downward cost price of each link of the industrial chain will stimulate the willingness of downstream installation; With the gradual implementation of superimposed large-scale scenery base projects and distributed photovoltaic projects throughout the county, the photovoltaic landscape is expected to continue to rise in the future.
In the medium and long term, "carbon peak", "carbon neutralization" and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. New energy such as photovoltaic will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future.
Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc.
(2) Wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale landscape base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power landscape is expected to be improved.
In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve "carbon neutrality", and we continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern change, such as tower, main shaft, casting, blade and so on; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Be optimistic about the opportunities under the change of whole machine link pattern and technology change; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) Energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , etc.
Risk statement
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power limitation did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The risk of epidemic development exceeded expectations.
