\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 589 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual performance express. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.484 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 577 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 378 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; The performance is slightly lower than the market expectation.
The product structure was continuously optimized, and the price increase affected the growth of short-term revenue. From the perspective of the company's product matrix, the high-end trend of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) products is obvious in recent years. In the vintage series, the company strengthened the assessment of the mouth for 10 / 20 years, so as to drive the recovery of the two single products to a faster growth rate. In addition, in May 2021, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) officially released the high-end large item "Jianxiang 518", positioning the price band of more than 500 yuan. According to the recent channel research, the dynamic sales of Jianxiang 518 are good. In the future, we expect that the company will continue to focus on building high-end products and continuously improve the proportion of high-end products in revenue. In the short term, due to the impact of the price increase of raw pulp series products in the year, the revenue ring ratio decreased slightly in the fourth quarter.
Production capacity has been released one after another, and brand awareness has been improved. From the perspective of the company's production capacity, in 2019 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) began the construction of Dongshan phase I, with an annual output of 18000 tons, a storage capacity of 100000 tons and a packaging capacity of 60000 tons of finished wine. In 2020, it raised 1.36 billion yuan to build phase II of the industrial Park. At present, the company's Dongshan phase I project is basically completed, and phase II is also stepping up construction. The company's positive layout in terms of production capacity is the guarantee of high-end wine volume in the future. From the perspective of the company's brand publicity, before 2019, the company's brand publicity was relatively weak due to its excellent product quality and large-scale channel model. After 2019, the company will increase its publicity expenses and participate in the "brand power project" of China Central Radio and television to strengthen the image of "real storage and real cellar, big country and fragrance" and further deepen the memory of consumers.
Promote channel reform and mobilize the enthusiasm of dealers. In terms of channel mode, the company reformed the original big business system in two aspects: 1) in terms of dealer system: the company adjusted and optimized the original dealer system to promote the distribution of high-end products. 2) In terms of organizational structure: the company recruits talents locally in key markets, matches local salaries and gives special rewards, and the enthusiasm of sales personnel has been greatly improved. In addition, the company announced in 2020 that it would buy back shares for core backbone incentive. At present, the company has repurchased 3.13 million shares. In the future, with the completion of the company's personnel adjustment, equity incentive is expected to be implemented smoothly.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: due to the non current account impact and the current Baijiu industry situation, we adjust the profit forecast slightly, we expect the net profit of 202123 years to the mother is 17.3/20.4/25.4 billion yuan (previously 16.3/21.9/27.6 billion yuan), the current stock price corresponds to PE is 25/21/ 17 times, maintains "buys" the rating.
Risk tip: the economy fluctuates sharply, the promotion of new products is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies
