\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual performance express, which achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan (+ 22.4%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.85 billion yuan (+ 30.7%); Among them, single Q4 achieved a revenue of 6.27 billion yuan (+ 24.1%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.57 billion yuan (32.2%), which met market expectations.
The year 2021 has ended successfully, and the performance flexibility continues to be released. 1. Under the background of macroeconomic pressure and sporadic outbreaks, the company's growth increased significantly month on month, showing strong development potential; Thanks to the scale effect of high income growth, the proportion of medium and high-end products continued to increase, the cost-effectiveness ratio under refined management increased, the annual net interest rate increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 38.5%, and the profitability continued to improve. 2. Product side: single Q4 high-end national cellar has smooth dynamic sales and stable price, and the growth rate continues to lead high-end wine; In 21h1, the price of medium-grade special Qu and cellar age were controlled and raised. In 21h2 peak season, the volume was gradually increased, and the growth continued to improve month on month; In addition, the company launched the sub high-end single product Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952 to promote the upgrading of the overall brand of Laojiao to high-end. 3. Market side: the company focuses on deep cultivation of channels in advantageous markets such as southwest and North China, and the consumption potential is increasingly strengthened; In recent years, the company has solidly promoted consumer cultivation and channel construction in emerging markets such as East China and South China. At present, consumer recognition and self-reliance rate have been continuously improved, and the brand is likely to enter the stage of accelerated release.
22 years can be expected to start well, and the potential energy is to strengthen the comprehensive rejuvenation. 1. According to the feedback from grassroots research, 21q4 company strictly implements the quota system and delivers goods accurately according to the channel inventory. The inventory in East China, South China and other regions is at a reasonably low level at the end of the year, accumulating strength in advance for the 22-year-old Spring Festival; During the Spring Festival, the national cellar continued to grow steadily. Among them, the low-grade national cellar has strong brand strength and high cost performance. It has increased in large quantities in markets such as North China and East China; The company is expected to make a good start as scheduled. 2. The company firmly promotes the revival of dual brands. Relying on Nisheng's brand potential and efficient channel execution, the high-end national cellar continues to reap the price share of 1000 yuan; The company continues to strengthen the cultivation of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand. Tequ and Jiaoling raise the price of Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) yuan, which is the secondary high-end mainstream price. Tequ version 60 promotes the national layout and launches the secondary high-end of 1952 high-line layout. The Laojiao brand is expected to accelerate the expansion and become a strong support for the steady growth of the company. 3. The company successfully launched the equity incentive plan. This equity incentive plan has wide employee coverage, strong incentive and positive assessment objectives, which can effectively bind the interests of senior executives and core backbone; With the improvement of the internal incentive mechanism, the company's "human harmony" advantage will be more obvious, adding strong momentum to the overall rejuvenation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.33 yuan, 6.87 yuan and 8.54 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 39 times, 30 times and 24 times respectively. The potential energy of Guojiao brand will be accelerated, the equity incentive will release the business potential energy, the continuous and steady growth can be expected, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
