\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 565 Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) )
Event: Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) announced the operating data from January to February 2022. From January to February, the company realized an operating revenue of about 2 billion yuan, an increase of about 13% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 464 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 108%.
The rise of freight rates has doubled the net profit from January to February, and the performance is expected to continue to improve in March: according to the China trade container freight index (PDCI) of Pan Asian shipping, the PDCI index increased by 26.68% year-on-year on average from January to February 2022, the company's revenue increased by about 13% year-on-year, and the revenue growth rate is lower than the industry freight rate growth, We believe that the main reason is that part of the company's domestic trade capacity has shifted to foreign trade, resulting in a decline in the volume of domestic trade business, while foreign trade operation is mainly carried out through leasing. The profitability of domestic trade was improved, superimposed with the high boom of foreign trade freight rates, and the net profit from January to February increased significantly by about 108% year-on-year. Looking forward to March, it is expected that the revenue and net profit will continue to improve year-on-year. The main reasons are as follows: 1) in the same period last year, the company suspended some ships that turned to foreign trade, superimposed with the decline in volume and price after the Spring Festival, and realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 08 million yuan in March 2021. 2) So far this year, domestic trade prices have been stable. From February 26 to March 4, PDCI fell by 0.36% month on month and increased by 36.52% year-on-year. Overall, we believe that the company's performance in the first quarter is expected to grow at a high speed year-on-year.
The transportation capacity of the industry continues to flow to foreign trade. Under the tight transportation capacity, it is expected that the freight rate will continue to increase throughout the year: affected by the high prosperity of foreign trade in 2021, the transportation capacity of domestic trade centralized transportation industry will flow out and turn to foreign trade. In 2022, the transportation capacity of the industry is still planned to transfer out, so the weighted average transportation capacity of the whole year will still decline. On the demand side, because the main types of domestic trade centralized transportation are various bulk commodities, The overall growth of demand is equivalent to that of GDP. Stimulated by the difference between supply and demand, the annual average freight rate is expected to increase by more than double digits. Domestic trade freight rates are improving, foreign trade continues to expand, and the company is optimistic about the steady growth of the annual performance: in terms of domestic trade, under the background of good freight rates and shortage of transport capacity, the company will continue to optimize the route network, improve quality and efficiency through fine management, improve the loading rate and voyage turnover speed, and constantly strengthen the layout in land transportation and provide door-to-door multimodal transport services. In terms of foreign trade, the company continues to explore offshore routes, reserve relevant sea going experience, grasp the opportunity of high prosperity in foreign trade and increase the performance of chartering ships. Based on the development of domestic and foreign trade business, we are optimistic about the steady growth of the company's annual performance.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the flow of industrial transport capacity to foreign trade makes the supply and demand of domestic trade tight. Under the difference between supply and demand, the year-on-year growth of domestic trade freight rate in 2022 has high certainty. In addition, the company actively explores foreign trade business, charters ships to increase performance and actively explores near ocean foreign trade on its own. In the medium term, the company will seize the opportunity of the industry to expand its transport capacity. The main increment of the industry's transport capacity in the next two years will come from Zhonggu. New ships will be launched successively from 2022q4, with high capacity elasticity in 2023 and 2024. In the long run, the demand for domestic trade and centralized transportation has been good for a long time. Under the development of internal circulation based economy, the transformation from scattered transportation to centralized transportation + multimodal transportation has brought deterministic growth. The company's mode of direct navigation of large ship trunk line + transfer of small ship branch line has been gradually verified, the operation efficiency is better than that of peers, and the market share is expected to continue to increase. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 24.0/23.2/2.78 billion respectively, corresponding to 9.9/10.2/8.5 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating.
Risk tip: domestic trade demand declines due to macroeconomic fluctuations; The industry turns to foreign trade, and the transportation capacity exceeds the expected return; Deterioration of domestic trade competition pattern; The prosperity of foreign trade decreased; Fuel costs have increased significantly
