\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 283 Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) )
The company’s total revenue in 2021 was 4.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%
The company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the annual revenue was 4.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.60%, and the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.57%. In terms of business, in 2021, the company’s revenue of crankshaft / connecting rod / crankshaft blank and casting and forging / air suspension business was 30.2 / 10.4 / 3.0 / 200 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.6% / + 3.5% / – 12.1% / + 253.2% respectively. In 2021, the company’s crankshaft / connecting rod sales were + 12.9% / + 5.8% year-on-year respectively. The new business air suspension was progressing smoothly, and the proportion of revenue increased from 1.3% in 2020 to 4.3%. Considering the sluggish downstream demand of the company’s traditional main business, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added a profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 6.1 (- 0.9) / 8.1 (- 0.8) / 960 million yuan respectively, EPS will be 0.54 (- 0.08) / 0.71 (- 0.08) / 0.84 yuan / share, and the current share price corresponding to PE in 20222024 will be 14.8 / 11.2 / 9.4 times respectively, The company’s air suspension brought growth and maintained the “buy” rating.
The downstream commercial vehicle industry has great downward pressure on demand, and the company’s Q4 revenue decreased significantly year-on-year in 2021
The marginal utility of the policy of “overload control” in the heavy truck market is weakened, and the demand is overdrawn in advance in the first half of 2021 due to the upgrading of the national VI emission standard for heavy diesel vehicles. In 2021, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 1.395 million, a year-on-year increase of – 13.8%. In 2021, Q1-Q4 heavy truck sales were + 94% / – 5% / – 56% / – 58% year-on-year respectively, and the company’s Q1-Q4 single quarter revenue was + 71% / + 34% / – 18% / – 42% year-on-year respectively. Q1 orders were full, the company’s production capacity was relatively insufficient, and some orders were transferred to q2-q3, resulting in the company’s q2-q3 performance year-on-year growth rate far better than the industry, and the impact of the downstream demand downturn at the beginning of Q4 was more obvious. Considering the downstream heavy truck demand, the performance of the company’s traditional main business is expected to remain under pressure in the first half of 2022.
Overweight the construction of air suspension capacity, and the air suspension business is expected to make a great breakthrough in 2022
In 2021, the company made smooth progress in the air suspension of commercial vehicles, and developed a total of 29 air suspensions, including 1 Trailer air suspension, 2 light truck chassis electronic control suspension, etc. In 2022, the company plans to invest in a new semi-trailer air suspension production line, a CDC solenoid valve production line and an assembly line, and plans to build a new 23000 square meters workshop and passenger car air suspension laboratory. With the increase of capacity construction, the development of the company’s air suspension business further accelerated.
Risk tip: the demand of heavy truck industry is less than expected, the development of air suspension business is less than expected, and the progress of product development is less than expected.
