\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Event: on March 14, the company released the performance express of 2021 & the announcement of business data from January to February 2022. In 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were 11.44 billion / 1.05 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 75.7% / + 66.4% respectively. From January to February 2022, the company's preliminary accounting is expected to achieve 2.53 billion / 250 million, a year-on-year increase of + 60% / + 64%.
The operating data from January to February 2022 are excellent, and the performance in 2021 is in line with expectations
1. Excellent business data from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company's revenue / profit were + 60% / + 64% year-on-year respectively, and the profit margin was basically stable compared with 4q21 (9.9% vs 10.3%). We believe that the company's operation from January to February is excellent: 1) the performance is far beyond the industry. From January to February 2022, the wholesale volume of T customers (China) / Geely / SAIC GM among the company's important customers was + 244% / - 4% / - 10% year-on-year. It is expected that t customers are still the main reason for the company's performance far exceeding the industry (China's passenger car sales in the first two months were + 14.4% year-on-year); 2) The company's 1q21 revenue / profit was + 100.8% / + 116.4% year-on-year respectively. The company achieved high growth under the high base and high gold content.
2. The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and the provision for goodwill resulted in the profit falling below the lower edge of the forecast. 1) Revenue: the company achieved revenue of 11.44 billion in 2021 (year-on-year + 75.7%) and 3.62 billion in 4q21 (same / month on month + 64.9% / 24.4% respectively); 2) Profit: the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.05 billion in 2021 (year-on-year + 66.4%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 290 million in 4q21 (same / month on month + 15.4% / - 0.6% respectively). The company's annual profit fell below the performance forecast (the forecast range was 1.05-1.15 billion), mainly due to the provision for goodwill impairment of 46.65 million for Zhejiang Jiali and Sichuan fudona acquired in 2017.
Production capacity landing + category expansion, with sufficient momentum for medium-term development. 1) Capacity accelerated landing. In 2021, the first and second suspension plants of the company will have sufficient capacity, and the second suspension system plant of the company will be completed in 2022; 2) Expand categories and enhance the value of bicycles. In terms of thermal management, the company has successfully developed integrated heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve, electronic water pump, gas-liquid separator and other products, and the supporting amount of single vehicle has reached 6 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0 yuan (1h21 thermal management revenue has reached 12%). In addition to covering t customers & the world's top traditional vehicle enterprises, the company has actively cooperated with rivian (the supporting value of single vehicle is 11000), Weilai, Xiaopeng Ideal and other new forces of head car making cooperate to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation model.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 11.4 billion yuan, 15.04 billion yuan and 19.53 billion yuan in 2021, 2022 and 2023, corresponding to net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.53 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan. Based on today's closing price, PE is 55.2 times, 37.7 times and 26.3 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the mitigation of chip shortage was less than expected, and the rise of raw material costs exceeded expectations
