Key investment points
November Baijiu business statistics revealed that we focused on liquor, condiments, beer, dairy products, frozen foods and dairy products under the plate line of business data analysis. The average price of Baijiu industry was relatively stable, and the concentration degree decreased slightly. The volume and price of condiment industry rose simultaneously, and the leading performance was better. The overall dynamic sales of the beer industry have improved, and the average price of the leading enterprises has increased. The sales of dairy industry declined as a whole, and the cheese sector maintained growth. The average price of frozen food industry increased year-on-year, and the market pattern was better.
Baijiu industry: average price is relatively stable, concentration degree slightly decreased. In terms of high-end liquor, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) sales were 544 million yuan, 469 million yuan and 115 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.66%, 1.53% and 27.93% respectively. In terms of secondary high-end liquor, the sales of Fen Liquor, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and shede were 145365, 128013, 41854 and 15962600 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.33%, – 21.43%, – 12.06% and 397.17% respectively; In terms of regional liquor, the sales of Yanghe, gujinggong, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) were 21571.78, 4307.37, 514083 and 1024.97 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.78%, – 6.97%, 220.13% and – 34.40% respectively; In terms of third and fourth tier liquor, the sales of Niulanshan, Laobaigan, Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , yingjiagong and golden seed were 2148355, 922.52, 242.72, 90815 and 1254000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 30.64%, – 26.48%, – 25.92%, – 1.92% and 19.62% respectively.
Condiment industry: both volume and price rise, and the leading performance is better. In November, the sales volume of soy sauce in offline supermarket channels was 1.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.03%; The sales volume of vinegar was 498 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.67%; The sales volume of cooking wine was 241 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%; The sales of seasoning powder was 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; The sales of seasoning sauce was 1.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The sales of hot pot seasoning was 513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. In terms of traditional condiments, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) sales reached 862 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%; Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) sales reached 230 million yuan, up 5.45% year-on-year; Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) sales reached 127 million yuan, up 14.07% year-on-year; Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) the sales volume was 51.6269 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.64%; Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) sales reached 186 million yuan, an increase of 40.55% year-on-year. In terms of compound condiments, Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) sales reached 76.8624 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%; The sales volume of Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) was 8.5365 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.43%.
Beer industry: the overall dynamic sales are improving, and the average price of the leading enterprises is increasing. In November, the sales of beer in offline supermarket channels was 818 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.67%. Specifically, the sales of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) were 2036447.42, 743496.96, 54244 and 18938200 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.59%, – 3.93%, 21.26%, 40.86% and 9.73% respectively.
Dairy industry: sales declined as a whole and the cheese sector maintained growth. In November, the sales volume of liquid milk in offline supermarket channels was 6.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and the average price increased by 1% year-on-year; The sales volume of yogurt was 4.909 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, and the average price fell 3% year-on-year; The sales volume of milk powder was 2.164 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and the average price increased by 10% year-on-year; The sales volume of cream cheese was 653 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, the sales volume increased by 21% and the average price decreased by 10%.
Frozen food industry: the average price increased year-on-year, and the market pattern was better. In November, the sales of quick-frozen food in offline supermarket channels was 2.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%. The offline market share of CR2 increased from 31.94% in November 20 to 35.47% in November 21, and the concentration increased.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn risk, food safety risk and industrial policy risk.
