Weak recession is the best beta environment for computers. It is expected that the follow-up computer industry will be similar to 13 / 14 years, and the investment is at the right time. 1) The computer industry chain is flat as a whole, with high opacity, medium growth rate, strong sustainability and large space. It has great flexibility under the condition of appropriate beta environment and dominant industry. During the weak recession, most industries have poor growth, the computer industry can reflect the comparative advantage of upward prosperity, and abundant liquidity dividends usually flow to industries with long-term space. Therefore, the weak recession is the best beta environment for computers. 2) At present, from the perspective of valuation, the position of public offering computer is at the historical bottom level since 2013, and PE has reasonable upward space. Among them, the rebound trend at the bottom of PS valuation of small companies has been seen, and PE is expected to be about 27 times in 2022, which has room for rise; The cash flow of large companies is significantly better than the profit, and the sustainable growth is clear. 3) At the current position, we expect the macro background to be weak recession; At the same time, on the main line of investment, the main lines of Internet Finance and information innovation level still need to be bred, and the emerging main lines continue to be interpreted. The follow-up environment is similar to that in 2013 / 2014, and the investment is at the right time.
The field of it innovation blossoms at many points. Q1 suggests focusing on the allocation of emerging leaders with large marginal changes. 1) Based on the past beta advantage range of the computer industry, we believe that the emerging direction of it can enjoy the double dividend of boom acceleration and cognitive acceleration, and the excess return is highly sustainable. For example, East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , the total market value increased by 5045%, 495% and 861% respectively from 2011 to 2021. 2) In terms of current industrial development, double carbon it: the firm promotion of the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) strategy has forced the reform of energy information system, and the proportion of intelligent and information investment is expected to increase significantly. Automotive Intelligence: the intelligent cockpit is expected to enter the critical point of deepening and acceleration, software decoupling has become a long-term goal, and the prosperity of domain controller, operating system and upper software has accelerated. Data security: the data security law, the personal information protection law and the antitrust law herald the arrival of the first year of the industry, and the long-term potential market space is expected to reach 100 billion. DCEP: Digital RMB may have strong national strategic significance. 2022 or the first year of DCEP, the Winter Olympic Games is expected to become a key node for promotion. At the same time, antitrust will also improve the profitability of the acquiring industry to a certain extent. Yuancosmos: the industry has entered the introduction period, the layout of global IT giants has accelerated, and the long-term application space is broad. Medical insurance payment: it brings the transformation demand of medical insurance it system, and the industrial space is nearly 10 billion; At the same time, the packaging pricing method enables the medical structure to actively control costs, highlights the importance of fine operation, and the medical it demand is expected to boost. Huawei Xinchuang: the strategic position of Xinchuang remains unchanged. The ecological construction of Huawei Xinchuang is expected to be smooth. The industry Xinchuang has opened bidding and is expected to enter a 2-3-year business cycle. 3) We believe that the prosperity of the above it innovation directions continues to improve, and the fundamentals of leading companies are expected to have large marginal changes. Q1 is worthy of key configuration.
The IT cornerstone field continues to grow, the logic is clear, and the long-term investment trend is upward. 1) The trend of computer transformation from the past integrator model to product, cloud and artificial intelligence is obvious, and the emergence of platform companies is accelerating. AI: it has entered the accelerated growth period, and the leading companies have natural scale advantages. Asset management it: the development trend of the capital market is clear, and the process of policy dividend and institutionalization continues to accelerate. Cloud Computing: the ten year cycle represents the main line, and the sustainability of growth is constantly verified. Industrial software: industrial knowledge barriers are extremely high, and the demand for digital transformation of manufacturing industry is upward. 2) Since 2021, affected by multiple factors, the valuation of it cornerstone field has been corrected and digested to a certain extent. With the continuous growth logic emerging, we expect that the long-term investment trend of relevant leading companies will continue to rise, which is worthy of attention.
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; Financial expenditure is lower than expected; Increased trade friction
