\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 589 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual performance express of 2021. The annual revenue was 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.4%, and the net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.5%; Among them, the revenue of single Q4 was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7%, and the net profit deducted from non parent company was 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.5%. The performance of single Q4 was lower than the market expectation.
Revenue slowed month on month, and profitability was under pressure at different stages. 1. The revenue of single Q4 has decreased month on month, which is expected to be mainly due to the price increase of 100 yuan price in 5 / 6 years, the dealers’ enthusiasm for payment is reduced, and it takes time for consumers and terminals to accept the new price system; In addition, after some markets have completed the task volume in 2021, single Q4 has taken the initiative to slow down the payment rhythm, so as to sort out the price and inventory, which has a phased impact. 2. On the basis of a small increase in revenue volume, the company has strengthened the cultivation of consumers and strengthened the investment in group purchase and hotel channels; Superimposed on the early spring festival of 22 years, it is expected that some market expenses during the Spring Festival will be advanced to the fourth quarter of 21 years, resulting in a decline in non net profit of single Q4 deduction and phased pressure on profitability.
The Spring Festival mobile sales show a beautiful performance and is expected to achieve a good start. 1. During the Spring Festival of 22 years, Anhui market was not affected by the epidemic, the epidemic control policy was looser than that in previous years, and the number of returnees increased significantly; The consumption heat of visiting relatives and friends, banquets and dinners is significantly better than that in previous years. The company fully benefits from the popularity of the Spring Festival in the Hui liquor market; 2. According to the grassroots research feedback, the company’s dealers’ enthusiasm for payment has increased significantly, the payment collection has increased significantly year-on-year, the growth of medium and high price products has been obvious, the average annual growth of kouzi 10 / 20 has been rapid, the demand of kouzi 5 / 6 at the price of 100 yuan has recovered significantly, the whole line of products have achieved high-speed growth, and the Spring Festival sales have exceeded expectations, superimposed the low base effect, and the company is expected to make a good start.
The east wind is upgraded, the reform is good, and the model of both fragrance and fragrance is diving and leaping. 1. Hui liquor has ushered in the fast-paced upgrading of mainstream prices, and the superposition of secondary high-end has become the second growth curve of Hui liquor brand, with a full sense of upgrading rhythm; The company focuses on cultivating the two price bands with the most development space in the province, i.e. early summer and Jianxiang 518 card, which will fully enjoy the expansion bonus of Huijiu. 2. Since 2021, the company has accelerated the pace of reform, increased market investment and improved the combat effectiveness of the marketing team; According to grassroots research feedback, except for individual markets, the adjustment of dealer system in other regions has basically ended, substantial breakthroughs have been made in new product layout and employee incentive, and the reform dividend will be released gradually; 3. In the past 22 years, the company has clearly focused on marketing, further developed group purchase channels, orderly developed special dealers, refined dealer assessment by products and channels, and established Hefei and East China marketing centers; In addition, the company has repurchased 3.13 million shares for employee incentives, which is expected to stimulate strong growth potential after the implementation of incentives in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.88 yuan, 3.26 yuan and 4.09 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23 times, 20 times and 16 times respectively. At present, the structure of Huijiu will be upgraded and the shift speed will be accelerated, the reform effect of the company will gradually appear, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
