\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event overview
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 23.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.0%. Among them, 4q21 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 16.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.4%, which is basically in line with expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
The management adjustment affects the growth rate of Q4 performance, but the overall situation of the whole year is in line with expectations
The demand for high-end Baijiu market has gradually recovered in the past 21 years, and the company’s sales have been smooth and the inventory has been kept under constant pressure. We have judged that the profit margins of dealers are gradually recovering. Superimposed on the organizational level, Q4 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is close to the adjustment of the management. Therefore, the growth rate of Q4 revenue and profit is lower than that in the first three quarters, but the overall revenue performance of the whole year has increased steadily, which is in line with market expectations.
The management adjustment and ex factory price increase have been completed, and we expect the Mid Autumn Festival price increase
At present, the adjustment of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) management has been completed. At present, all work has been gradually promoted, and the internal objectives of the company are unified, step by step and firm. At the same time, 21q4 puwu adjusted the prices inside and outside the plan. After the comprehensive cost of the ex factory price was raised to 969 yuan / bottle, the approval price remained stable. Therefore, we expect that the approval price of puwu is expected to rise to the price band of 1000 yuan this year (the current approval price is about 970 yuan / bottle), and the market confidence will be greatly boosted.
During the Spring Festival, the mobile sales were good and the terminal confidence was significantly improved
We judge that the terminal is satisfied with its profit level, and its sales enthusiasm has rebounded significantly. At the moment when the sauce and wine are shrinking and the fragrance is not rising, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the leader of Luzhou flavor, the brand effect has been fully demonstrated, and its market share in the spring festival gifts and wedding banquet scenes is far higher than that of other thousand yuan brands. We expect Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) q1 revenue and profit to achieve double-digit growth.
Investment advice
Adjust the profit forecast according to the company’s performance forecast. From 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue was adjusted from 67.5/78.75/90.92 billion yuan to 66.177/77.189/89.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.4% / + 16.6% / + 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 23.77/28.16/33.1 billion yuan to 23.351/27.596/32.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.0% / + 18.2% / + 17.1%; EPS was adjusted from 6.12/7.25/8.53 yuan to 6.02/7.11/8.33 yuan, and the closing price of 157.15 yuan on March 15, 2022 was 26.12/22.10/18.87 times of PE respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
① the epidemic situation continues to exceed expectations; ② Economic downturn leads to weakening demand; ③ Food safety issues.
