Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets did not continue the momentum of rebounding against the trend on Friday, but both opened low for consolidation. At the time of early trading shock, they once had a pull-up performance, but also quickly suffered pressure and fell. In the afternoon, the stock index plunged again, accelerated its decline in the late trading, and the weak pattern was seen everywhere.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the V-shaped reversal failed to reappear after the sharp fall of the two markets on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite Index retracted a long negative line of shrinkage at present, there is a strong pessimism in the market, and the degree of panic among investors has intensified. However, each major turning point before was generated in extreme pessimism. Especially after the gloomy decline at the beginning of the year and the current sharp decline, the cost performance of many blue chip varieties began to highlight . At present, on the one hand, investors control their positions, on the other hand, they start to explore the wrong varieties of this round of sharp decline.
In terms of the future market, Bohai Securities mentioned that affected by local overseas conflicts and the decline of overseas Chinese concept stocks, northbound funds also showed a continuous departure trend . However, generally speaking, northward capital departure still abides by certain rules, and the market panic fell or more came from the risk aversion of Chinese funds . In the short term, external and other risk factors and domestic hedging behavior still have the possibility of repetition, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market. However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low allocation opportunities within the year.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that there are still many short-term adverse factors. Although it is expected to rebound after oversold, the rebound space is limited as a whole. In the medium term, the market trend has been seriously damaged, and it will take time to repair. Considering the obvious downward movement of chips, but the strong support near the long-term moving average, expects the Shanghai stock index to fluctuate between 31003400 points in at least one quarter in the future, and the opportunity of midline allocation is expected to appear after June .
However, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the characteristics of stock game are significant, and investors have a heavy wait-and-see mood with money. At present, the market is obviously affected by external factors and the overall performance is depressed. it is expected that the stock indexes of the two cities will continue to explore and seek effective support before the external factors are fully digested . It is expected that the short-term shock of the Shanghai stock index is more likely to decline, and the short-term slight decline of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
It is noteworthy that Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) analyzes the extent and impact of foreign capital outflow by comparing history in history, A-Shares have also experienced the phenomenon of large phased outflow of foreign capital , compared with April May 2019 and February March 2020, the proportion of net outflow of foreign capital is not large, but it accounts for a high proportion of transaction volume. At present, similar to October 2018, when the market incremental funds are small, the impact of foreign capital outflow is amplified.
Although foreign capital has also phased out A-Shares significantly in history, from the opening of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in 2014 to going north in 2021, the capital flows into A-Shares every year, so the proportion of foreign capital in the A-share market is also increasing. As of 2021q4, the overall value of foreign-funded stock market is about 3.9 trillion, accounting for nearly 10% of the free circulation market value of a shares, of which the proportion of land stock connect and QFII / rqfii is about 7:3. However, up to now, the proportion of A-Shares in the global portfolio is still very low. In 2020, the market value of A-share listed companies has reached 13% in the global capital market, while the weight of A-Shares in MSCI acwi index is only about 0.4%, and the proportion of Chinese Listed Companies in the stock portfolio of Norwegian central bank investment management company is only 3.8% looking back, with the rapid increase of the importance of China’s economy in the world, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares is still a long-term trend for a long time .
In the macro aspect, Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the appropriate advance of China’s “steady growth” policy and the controllable inflation pressure, the historically relatively low valuation stock index is expected to desensitize to the external disturbance and usher in a turnaround. In terms of investment, it is suggested to maintain the allocation ratio of value higher than growth . It is suggested that the central enterprises should make a logical breakthrough in the overall operation of “capital construction” and “low cost performance” before the overall operation of “capital construction” and “low cost performance” of the central enterprises. It is suggested that the central enterprises should continue to focus on the overall operation of the capital construction industry and the manufacturing market Fully adjust the theme sectors such as new energy guide.
In terms of operational strategy, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at the current time point, the deterioration of macro fundamentals was more obvious. First, the performance of social finance and credit in February failed to continue the “good start” and deteriorated beyond expectations, reflecting that the environment facing China’s steady growth is still complex. Second, the situation of China’s epidemic situation is not optimistic. Therefore, a shares have not yet formed the bottom, It is suggested to reasonably control the position, and pay attention to the sectors such as medicine and biology, real estate, national defense and military industry with sufficient safety margin and expected improvement of industry prosperity .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that in the process of wrestling with internal policies and external risk constraints, the market volatility has been amplified , the allocation should be balanced, and the market in the third stage of gradual layout and growth in medium-term investment opportunities is expected. On the whole, the industry configuration continues three main lines and two themes.
main line I : the stable growth sector with strong policy certainty is the weakest constrained by external risks and can be used as a ballast for short-term balanced response. Pay attention to new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and new power grid construction, as well as real estate and banks with the initial reversal of the recent boom.
main line II : do a good job in the opportunity layout of pulling out the valuation market in the third stage of medium-term growth. First, the growth structure continues, the strong is always strong, and pay attention to double carbon, new energy (vehicles), wind and solar storage and electronic semiconductors. Second, national defense and military industries and computers that have the potential to benefit from valuation proliferation.
main line III : in terms of consumption, continue to look at the overall opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector under the catalysis of many benefits, and pay attention to the opportunities related to dairy products, planting industry and chemical fertilizer with smoother price rise in the medium and long term; In terms of theme, we will continue to pay attention to investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
