Industry views and key recommendations
In September 2021, our report proposed “only time, not space”, and the computer gradually came out of the bottom. At the beginning of 2022, we proposed that “computers at the end of 21 years are like semiconductors at the end of 18 years”.
Why do we have such confidence. It mainly comes from three points:
First, starting from the end of 2021, this round of computer market is the continuation and upgrading of semiconductor market. China’s science and technology industry has always been “lack of core and soul”. Neither of them is indispensable, and there is no difference in importance. This has been set by the highest level at the conference of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on May 28, 21. Localization is the core contradiction of the science and technology industry in the next decade. We firmly believe that this driving factor is “the result” in China’s chip industry and is also “budding” in the China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) industry.
Second, only being late is not absent. The industry Xinchuang started in 22 years is the real localization of software
The significance of localization is to help Chinese local software manufacturers rise in product strength and open up a broad b-end market. Limited to application scenarios, g-end Xinchuang can obviously do it. However, if the industry Xinchuang is fully promoted in 22 ~ 23 years, the ability from basic software to application software is expected to be verified by giant customers. In addition to the opening of the market, the piracy problem that has plagued the industry for many years has a foundation to solve.
Third, the market is expected to re recognize the attribute of “long slope and thick snow” in the industry, and the computer has ushered in a resonance between supply and demand in the past 22 years
Of course, this localization process is also accompanied by the upgrading of cloud, and the “long slope and thick snow” attribute of the software industry is further improved after the component of Zhongtai. This attribute highlights the scarcity under the long-term background of GDP slowdown in 22 years. Looking forward to the next 22 years, in addition to the acceleration of the demand for industry information and innovation, the cost side of the industry statement level is also expected to be significantly improved (the scissors difference between profit and revenue growth). In addition, in addition to the growth logic and numerator side, we believe that the industry valuation and denominator side have also become friendly for 22 years.
1) Denominator: our judgment on interest rate and risk appetite is obviously not our strong point, but combined with the judgment of Tianfeng strategy team, we believe that liquidity and risk appetite are loose and moderate.
2) Industry Valuation: in the past, the market always felt “expensive” when looking at computers, but in fact, after we released the report “characteristics and prospects of recent rebound in the computer sector” in December 21, in addition to the theme of low peg, the main lines such as medical it have begun to agitate.
The past year was undoubtedly a difficult year for the computer industry. Although the industry ranked 18th, with an increase of 3%, it was basically the bottom in the growth industry. We firmly believe that 2022 is expected to become a long-term turning point in the computer industry. Computers at the end of 21 years are like semiconductors at the end of 18 years.
Risk tip: the macro economy is depressed, the plate policy has changed significantly, and the international environment has changed significantly.
