Industry core view:
Last week (December 27-december 31, 2021), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by 2.0%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.4%, and the machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.6pct. 25 of Shenwan's 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 14th, with the overall performance in the middle reaches.
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : 15 departments jointly issued the "14th five year plan" Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial plan, and the manufacturing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density will increase by 100% in 2025. Last week, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and other 15 departments officially issued the "14th five year" Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) Industrial Development Plan "(hereinafter referred to as the plan). According to the development objectives of the plan, by 2025, China will become the source of global Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) technological innovation, high-end manufacturing agglomeration and a new highland of integrated application. The comprehensive index of the whole machine has reached the international advanced level, and the performance and reliability of key parts have reached the international level of similar products. The average annual growth rate of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial operating revenue exceeds 20%. Manufacturing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density doubled. We are optimistic about the localization of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . Under the logic of machine replacement brought by policy support and population aging, China's industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) may usher in rapid development during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Photovoltaic equipment: the installed proportion of renewable energy power generation of central enterprises needs to reach more than 50% in 2025, and the installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to exceed the expectation in 2021. In terms of policy, last week, SASAC issued the guidance on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, which requires that the installed proportion of renewable energy power generation by central enterprises should reach more than 50% by 2025. In terms of installed capacity, according to the statistics of Zhihui PV, the 12-volt grid connection in 2021 will exceed 25gw (including household PV above 4gw, distributed PV above 2gw and ground power station above 18gw). According to this calculation, the new installed capacity of PV in 2021 will exceed 60GW. In terms of equipment, Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) the first hjt PECVD has excellent performance and has been verified by Jinneng technology production line. Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) since the equipment was stationed in Jinneng technology in June last year, the installation and commissioning were completed in August. After more than three months of continuous hardware improvement and process optimization, the average efficiency of the battery produced by the equipment has reached 24.38% and the average efficiency of the optimal batch has reached 24.55%. It is recommended to pay attention to the equipment update requirements brought by the battery technology change.
Lithium battery equipment: in November, the production and marketing of electric vehicles in China reached a new record, with a penetration rate of 17.8%. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November were 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to set a new record, with a penetration rate of 17.8% in November. From January to November 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output was 188.1gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 184.1%; The installed capacity of power batteries in China was 128.3gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 153.1%. According to the statistics of starting point lithium battery, 25 enterprises including Ningde, Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) have a total planned capacity of 1894gwh. In addition, overseas lithium battery manufacturers are expected to accelerate their production expansion next year. It is suggested to pay attention to the lithium battery equipment enterprises that are the leaders of integrated lithium battery equipment and benefit from overseas expansion.
Construction machinery: CME estimates the sales volume of 22500 units in December, a year-on-year decrease of 28.64%. CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) will be about 22500 in December 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of about - 28.64%. By market: the estimated sales volume in the Chinese market is 16000 units, with a growth rate of about - 41%, and the decline in sales growth in the Chinese market has narrowed; The estimated sales volume in the export market is 6500 units, with a growth rate of about 54%. The decline in sales growth in the export market is mainly affected by the high base in the same period in 2020.
Risk factors: the investment in fixed assets is less than expected, the industrialization of heterojunction is less than expected, the issuance of special bonds is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk
