Computer industry analysis: the recent performance of medical it, bank it and other sub sectors is good. On the one hand, we believe that the prosperity of the above sectors is still good, but the valuation has been adjusted for a long time, and the recent policy is friendly, which has accelerated the valuation repair. At present, the 22-year valuation of the relevant subject matter is still less than 30 times and still flexible. In addition, the network security sector is also characterized by the superposition of undervalued value and policy promotion. The valuation of the industry white horse target is also at the bottom of history, and the configuration cost performance is high. Focus on medical I, bank it, network security and industry white horse targets.
Medical it and bank it have performed well recently. Recently, medical it, bank it and other sectors have performed well. We believe that the prosperity of the above sectors is still good. Superimposed on the long-term adjustment before, the valuation has been low. From the perspective of switching to 22 years, the demand for valuation repair is obvious. For example, for the bank IT sector, the IT expenditure of major banks continued to increase, and the revenue of relevant companies has maintained steady growth since this year; For the medical IT sector, the National Medical Security Bureau recently issued the notice on printing and distributing the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment method reform, which is expected to bring an annual incremental market of nearly 10 billion yuan. At present, the 22 year consensus expected valuations of medical IT sector such as B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) , Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software Co.Ltd(002777) , bank IT sector such as Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) are still within 30 times and still flexible.
The network security sector also has similar characteristics. Network security expenditure is a relatively rigid expenditure of the government and large enterprises. This sector has always been the one with high growth certainty in the computer segment, and the historical compound growth rate is close to 20% (the leader is faster). Over the past 20 years, under the background of relatively tight government finances and repeated epidemics, the overall revenue of the sector has still maintained growth. Looking forward to 22 years, with the stable epidemic situation, the recovery of economic growth and the promotion of new policies such as data security, the sector is expected to return to high-speed growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the security industry oriented planning and data security law and other policies continued to be implemented to promote the development of the sector. On July 12, the Ministry of industry and information technology publicly solicited opinions on the three-year action plan for high quality development of network security industry (2021-2023) (Exposure Draft). This “plan” is the first landing plan in the field of network security for the “14th five year plan”, which defines the investment scale of network security in the next few years, which is of great significance. On June 10, the data security law was voted and will come into force on September 1, 2021. The data security law fills the gap in data security protection legislation, defines the responsibilities of all parties and forms a restriction mechanism. The continuous implementation of the above policies is expected to promote the emergence of new growth poles in the sector. The overall valuation of the network security sector in the computer sub sector is low, especially in the past 21 years, the sector has experienced a round of downward valuation. At present, the PS in 21 years such as Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) has dropped to more than 10 times, and the PE in 21 years such as Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) has dropped to 30 times left and right, with high overall security.
Leading white horse valuation further tends to be reasonable. Such as Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Kingdee International, Mingyuan cloud, Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) . The growth of leading white horse is relatively stable, and there have been many adjustments since this year, mainly due to the excessive increase and high valuation in the first half of 19 and 20 years. Since the beginning of this year, the general adjustment of Baima target has been 20% – 30%, and the performance has increased by 20% – 30%. The overall digestion of the valuation has exceeded 40%. The valuation has gradually become reasonable. Considering that the valuation will switch to 23 years after the second half of next year, the attraction of relevant companies will further appear. Therefore, it has a certain configuration value at present, and the configuration value will be higher and higher.
Investment suggestions: focus on medical it, bank it, network security and other sectors and industry leader Baima.
Risk tip: the economy is down, and the government expenditure is less than expected; The strength of the policy was less than expected.
