Core ideas of this week:
New year's day has arrived. As a three-day short holiday close to the Spring Festival holiday, due to the risk of epidemic rebound in some areas, the traffic travel data has dropped year-on-year. Residents' travel continues the previous characteristics of local travel and peripheral travel, and the tourism market is still not optimistic; However, PMI improved month on month in December, higher than the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, which is optimistic about the improvement of business travel demand.
From the traffic data, the number of trips on New Year's Day is expected to decline steadily. According to the data of the Ministry of transport, on the first day of the new year's holiday, the total number of passengers sent by railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation is expected to be 30.73 million, an increase of 6.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%. From the perspective of railway, the Ministry of transport predicts that the number of passengers sent by the national railway will decrease year-on-year in 2022, including 8.41 million passengers sent by the railway on the first day, an increase of 3.5% month on month and a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year; On the 2nd, the railway sent 5.683 million passengers, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%; It is expected that 7.3 million passengers will be sent on the 3rd, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%.
From OTA travel data, the local travel trend will continue. Ctrip released the travel data report on New Year's Day holiday in 2022. Short distance peripheral travel increased significantly compared with that before the epidemic. On the first day of new year's Day holiday in 2022, the ticket booking volume of peripheral travel has exceeded 264% of that on the first day of holiday in 2020; Travel orders in the province accounted for nearly 60% during the new year's day in 2022, compared with nearly 50% during the new year's day in 2020. Residents' consumption habits of "local festivals" continued to be verified. Tongcheng travel released the 2022 New Year's Day travel consumption trend report. The data show that as of December 27, 2021, the average price of hotels in China during the 2022 New Year's Day holiday has increased by 12% year-on-year, of which local accommodation orders account for more than 45%. Theme hotels around Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing and other cities are popular with young tourists, and rural home stay bookings around the cities are popular.
With the Spring Festival approaching, although the risk of epidemic rebound still exists in Xi'an and other parts of China, considering that it is basically controlled locally and is expected to have a limited impact on the overall travel, the return trip around the Spring Festival is expected to drive a significant increase in the number of trips. The Spring Festival transportation in 2022 will begin on January 17 and end on February 25, with a total of 40 days. The Ministry of transport predicts that the National Spring Festival transportation passenger volume will increase significantly compared with the 870 million passengers in 2021. According to qunar platform data, as of December 30, the hotel reservation volume from the first day to the sixth day of the lunar new year in 2022 has exceeded the reservation volume of the same period at the end of 2019. In addition, the Beijing Winter Olympic Games will be held in February 2022, and the two sessions will be held in Beijing in March. In order to ensure the smooth holding of major activities, it is expected that the local new year policy in Beijing will be more strict than that in other regions, and residents will travel mainly by local tourism.
Investment suggestions: 1) hotel sector: PMI in December was 50.3, with a month on month increase of 0.2pct, It has been higher than the boom and bust line for two consecutive months. It is optimistic that the business demand of the hotel will continue to pick up. It is recommended to pay attention to the hotel leader of rapid expansion of the store. 2) Gold jewelry: jewelry consumption demand remains high and is optimistic about the release of intensive consumption before the Spring Festival.
Industry recovery: the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3639.78, up or down 0.60% in the week; The Shenzhen composite index closed at 14857.35, up or down 1.00% in the week; Shenwan social service index closed at 11041.35, up or down 4.88% in the week; Shenwan retail trade index closed at 3085.05, up or down 0.17% in the week.
Shenwan beauty care index closed at 7668.61, up or down - 0.58% in the week. Judging from the weekly growth and decline of Shenwan secondary sub section, the top three were education (6.70%), trade (4.52%) and professional services (3.89%), and the last three were professional chain (- 4.68%), Internet e-commerce (- 1.55%) and cosmetics (- 0.35).
Key reports focus on:
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : the short-term performance is disturbed by the epidemic, and the long-term space for tax-free leaders is broad, October 31, 2021
Cosmetics industry: how to build a century old enterprise for domestic Aromatherapy 2020-12-04
Hotel Industry: what is the growth space for medium and high-end hotels under the rapid expansion 2021-01-04
Higher education industry: analysis of investment opportunities of private universities from four dimensions 2020-11-17
Tracking history: embracing flexible employment, scale and technology are the core of future competition 2020-03-05
Key recommendations: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662)
Long term recommendation: Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315)
Risk tip: the epidemic situation rebounded in some areas, and the economic recovery was less than expected and exceeded the expected policy
