Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
Event: the company issued the announcement on production and operation in 2021. According to preliminary accounting, the company produced about 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and about 28200 tons of series base liquor in 2021; It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion (including Maotai liquor revenue of about 93.2 billion and series liquor revenue of about 12.6 billion), a year-on-year increase of about 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 52 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%.
comment:
The growth rate of 21q4 was improved month on month, and the volume was stable and the rating changed. According to the company's announcement, we expect 21q4 to achieve a total operating revenue of about 31.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, a net profit attributable to the parent of about 14.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and the growth rate has improved month on month. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 liquor was about 31.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, the revenue of Maotai liquor was about 28.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and the revenue of series liquor was about 3.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. 21q4 company has significantly strengthened the large-scale e-commerce channels, improved the tension between supply and demand of full container flying by canceling the unpacking policy, increased the unpacking specification of 12 bottles / box, and maintained the supply of bulk bottles. Since the middle and late October, Feitian's full container rating has dropped from 3800 yuan to 3270 yuan, and the bulk bottle rating fluctuates around 2700 yuan. The effect of rating control is obvious, which promotes the commercialization and marketization of Maotai price, reduces the risk of public opinion, and the market's expectation of Maotai price increase is rising. Different from the previous one-time payment in the first quarter, the dealer currently makes payment on a monthly basis and has paid the winery at the ex factory price of 969 yuan. The payment for January accounts for about 25% of the whole year. The reference significance of the past price increase node is weakened.
The annual production task was exceeded, and the output of Maotai liquor was released smoothly. In October 2020, Maotai Group said at the "2021 annual production and quality conference" that the production capacity target of Maotai base liquor in 2021 was 55300 tons. According to the company's announcement, the actual excess was about 12000 tons, and the target of 56000 tons was successfully achieved through the "13th five year plan" Maotai liquor technical transformation and expansion project. During 2018-2020, the production capacity of Maotai base liquor was once maintained at about 50000 tons, and an increase of about 6300 tons was achieved in 2021, further ensuring the company's future sales and supply. If the theoretical marketable proportion of Maotai liquor is 85%, we expect that about 48000 tons of Maotai liquor will be available for sale in 2025. In 2020, the sales volume of Maotai liquor will be 34300 tons. We expect that the sales volume of Maotai liquor will be released smoothly in the future. On the one hand, we will increase the sales volume based on the expansion of production in the 13th five year plan, on the other hand, we will improve the structure and increase the proportion of ultra-high-end products to jointly promote the improvement of performance. In December, the company won 26 industrial lands in the east of Xishui Town, Xishui County, and the technical transformation project of 30000 tons Maotai flavor series wine is still progressing steadily.
Maotai rare wine was newly launched, and the construction of ultra-high-end product line was strengthened. With the completion of the production capacity expansion of Maotai base liquor in the 13th five year plan, the new expansion project has not been demonstrated yet. In order to make full use of the scarce production capacity resources, the company actively constructs the ultra-high-end product sequence above Feitian Maotai to actively adapt to the new consumption demand. At present, the company has initially formed a core product echelon with a recommended retail price of 1499 yuan for Feitian Maotai, 2599 yuan for Chinese Zodiac wine, 3299 yuan for fine wine, 4599 yuan for colored glaze treasures and 5999 yuan for Maotai in the past 15 years. In addition to the Chinese Zodiac liquor, there are few new product launches in Maotai in recent years, and on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the factory, the launch launch of colored glaze treasures is the first new product launch held by the source of Maotai, which is quite meaningful. We believe that both the contraction of Maotai's total distribution of ultra-high-end products in recent years and the grand release of colored glaze treasures reflect the company's attention to self-supporting ultra-high-end products. In particular, two days after the release and listing of colored glaze treasures, the proposed retail price was raised by 100 yuan, carefully testing the market's feedback on the price adjustment and releasing positive signals. We believe that Moutai, as a benchmark for industry, has certain leading and demonstrative effects on its products and prices. The high-end and high-end price bands of Baijiu will further open up the channel. Both the future price adjustment of Feitian Maotai and the new listing of the rare Maotai are of great significance to straighten out the price mechanism of Maotai liquor. On the one hand, it thickens the profit through the high-end product line, on the other hand, it reduces the channel gross profit space, which is conducive to Maotai channel reform and market-oriented operation.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in the new year's message in 2022, Maotai Group publicized the trend of swaggering in the name of "looking at Taiwan, looking at the four directions and being high". Looking back on the "platform" poured in 70 years, we pay tribute to the craftsman's heart behind each bottle of Maotai. Now we stand on the high "platform" and overlook the most beautiful distance of "double doubling, double consolidation and double creation". We believe that in 2022, the company will continue to implement the channel marketing reform, increase the investment volume of direct sales, e-commerce, supermarkets and other channels, gradually recover the channel profits, contribute to the revenue and profit increment through the large-scale volume of ultra-high-end product lines, adhere to the soul of quality, take the "five lines" plan, and embark on a new journey of high quality and strong industry. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 42.01 yuan, 49.17 yuan and 57.14 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk; Repeated epidemic risk
