Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
Event overview: the company released the production and sales data in December 2021, and the automobile output in December was 97300, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.97% / month on month decrease of - 1.08%; In December, the automobile sales volume was 99100, with a year-on-year increase of + 75.97% / month on month decrease of - 0.64%.
Analysis and judgment:
The short-term sales volume affected by the epidemic basically ended, and the demand for new energy vehicles continued to be strong. Byd Company Limited(002594) in December, the output of new energy vehicles was 92000, with a year-on-year increase of + 218.64% / month on month increase of + 0.89%, and the sales volume was 93900, with a year-on-year increase of + 225.73% / month on month increase of + 2.30%. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 48300, a year-on-year increase of + 148.01% / month on month increase of + 3.42%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles was 44500, with a year-on-year increase of + 448.64% / month on month increase of + 1.12%. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy in the whole year was 603800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 218.3%. In late December, the output of the company's Xi'an automobile production base was affected by the epidemic to a certain extent. In December, there was an overall production and marketing mismatch. Up to now, the production of Xi'an base has basically returned to normal, the short-term capacity pressure has been relieved, and the demand for new energy vehicles continues to be strong.
The iteration of Dynasty Series is accelerated, the increment of Ocean series is opened, the product matrix is accurately clamped, and the leading position of new energy is difficult to shake. Dynasty Series cut into the high-end new energy market with Tang and Han. Han, as the core model of the company's high-end strategy, sold 104000 units from January to November 2021, accounting for about 15% in the 200000-300000 electric vehicle market, with significant competitive advantage. Qin and song new energy quickly seized 150000-200000 sedans and 100000-150000 SUV markets respectively, with clear product positioning, price segmentation and prominent competitive advantage. Qin new energy's sales volume from January to November 2021 reached 164000 units, accounting for 82% of 150000-200000 new energy cars; Song new energy sold 90000 units from January to November 2021, accounting for 91% of 100000-150000 new energy SUVs. The company continued to strengthen hybrid R & D and product layout. The proportion of DM models in the company's new energy sales increased from 27% in 2020 to 46% in 2021. Marine strategy further improves the company's product matrix, with dolphin layout below 100000 pure electricity A0 level, high cost performance and young elements to seize the market segments and continue to contribute to the increment. From January to November 2021, the company's new energy sales accounted for about 23% of independent new energy. In 2022, the company has rich new car reserves. It is expected that a number of new models such as chundianyuan plus, song Pro DM-I and destroyer 05 will be launched at the same time, which is expected to drive the company's new energy sales to exceed one million. The company's product matrix is rich, the card position is accurate, and the leading position of new energy is difficult to shake.
Electric intelligence is strong in research and development, and multi-dimensional technologies build core barriers, which fully benefit from the accelerated popularization of electric vehicles. DM technology and E platform under BNA architecture enable the core competitiveness of products, and power battery and semiconductor technology lead the industry with strong competitive advantages. High economic DM-I / high dynamic dm-p technology has cast the company's leading position in the hybrid field; Highly integrated, efficient and intelligent electric platform E3 0 help Byd Company Limited(002594) lead intelligent electric vehicles; The core components of new energy vehicles, blade batteries and IGBT technology, establish industry technical benchmarks and strengthen the research and development of all-round technology enabled products, which is expected to drive the company's volume and price rise, and fully benefit from the accelerated popularization of electric vehicles.
Investment suggestion: affected by chip shortage and epidemic factors, we lowered the forecast net profit attributable to parent company in 21 years and raised the forecast net profit attributable to parent company in 22 and 23 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 45.30/87.48/12.716 billion respectively, corresponding to 172 / 89 / 61 times of the current share price PE respectively. The company has made full efforts in the hybrid and pure electric markets and maintained the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation of chip supply is less than expected, the recovery of passenger cars is less than expected, and the product landing is less than expected.
