Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (000001)
Key investment points
Clear strategy and continue to upgrade
On December 11, 2021, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) held a bank wide working meeting in 2022. Chairman Xie Yonglin clearly proposed that in 2022, he would focus on ten key businesses, including “corporate users to customers”, “credit card take-off”, “breakthrough in new model of Bancassurance” and “value mining of interbank data chain of funds”, and continue to upgrade his strategy.
Retail increment contributed by Bancassurance
The bancassurance business team is growing rapidly and is expected to become a new growth point of retail. ① Team enhancement: according to China Securities Company, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) Bancassurance team will expand to 10000-20000 people in the long term. And the teams are elite and strong, not the traditional life insurance agent model. The customers that need to be “solved” are medium and high-end wealth customers. According to Ping An ticket number, at present, about 23% of the members of the Bancassurance team are from foreign banks and foreign life insurance companies, about 45% have management experience in high-quality and high-capacity teams, and about 36% of their personal performance has reached MDRT standard or above. ② Excellent mechanism: adopt the “career + entrepreneurship” incentive model, that is, fixed base salary and position allowance, plus sales allowance, the incentive mechanism is excellent. ③ Win win mode: bancassurance business is expected to achieve win-win for banks and groups. The group benefits from product sales; Benefiting from the group’s empowerment, the bank’s products are expected to be more customized and more in line with the needs of bank customers, which not only enhances the competitiveness of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) wealth business, but also contributes to medium income (the insurance agency rate is much higher than public offering). With the rapid expansion of the team and flexible incentive mechanism, the growth of bancassurance has begun to take shape. According to Ping An ticket number, the medium and advance collection of Bancassurance will double year-on-year in 2021, which is expected to contribute to a new growth point of retail medium income in the future.
Operation of public users
The business model of corporate customers is upgraded, and the customer base has broad room for improvement. ① Mode upgrade: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) proposes to transfer corporate “users to customers”, that is, reach customers in batches through channels such as “nebula platform, open bank and digital pocket”, realize user transformation through matching products, rights and interests and customer referral, and consolidate the customer base. ② Broad space: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has 6 + million corporate users and is still growing rapidly due to ecological expansion. The number of 21h1 Digital Pocket users increased by 60% over the beginning of the year. At present, the number of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) corporate customers is about 500000, and there is a huge space for transformation from users to customers in the future.
Real estate risk is expected to be controllable
The market is highly concerned about real estate risks, and we believe that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) is limited. ① On balance sheet exposure: low risk appetite. According to the data disclosed by real estate enterprises, it is estimated that state-owned enterprises account for 61% of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) real estate exposure; 21h1 Ping An’s corporate loan yield is 4.08%, which is the third lowest in listed stock banks. According to the principle of risk return matching, it is speculated that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has a low risk preference for corporate loans. ② Off balance sheet exposure: expected impact is limited. It is speculated that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has some consignment business of real estate trust products, but considering breaking the principle of customer’s own risk under the background of just exchange, it is expected to have a limited impact on the bank. ③ Policy correction: it is being confirmed. The high risk of real estate is expected to have passed under various policies. The central economic work conference proposed to implement policies to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry; According to the financial Associated Press, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to encourage high-quality real estate enterprises to acquire projects of real estate enterprises in danger.
Profit growth is expected to lead
The profit momentum of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) is significantly enhanced, and the profit is expected to maintain high growth. ① Profit momentum: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) bad burden has been digested, and the level of bad debt and provision has reached the best since 2015. The upgrading of retail and corporate strategies is expected to support the rapid growth of profits; ② Capital pressure: with the tightening of capital supervision, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) the necessity of achieving endogenous growth through profitability has increased, and the profit growth is expected to remain the leader of listed banks.
Profit forecast and valuation
The strategy is clear, continues to upgrade, the stock price enters the value range, and reiterates the first combination. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2021 to 2023 will increase by 28.25% / 15.11% / 15.33% year-on-year, corresponding to BPS shares of 16.84/18.71/20.88 yuan. The current price corresponds to 0.98/0.88/0.79 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 33.03 yuan, corresponding to 1.77x Pb in 2021, the current price corresponds to 0.88x Pb in 2021, and the current price space is 100%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and significant exposure of adverse.
