Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
The market-oriented reform continued to advance, the future performance could be accelerated, and the "buy" rating was maintained
In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of about 109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 11.3%. The company's base liquor reserves are more calm, the high-end product matrix is richer, the direct sales channels continue to expand, the channel profits are recovered, and the performance is expected to accelerate. Maintain the profit forecast for 2021 and raise the profit forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 52.46 (constant) billion yuan, 62.17 (+ 1.84) billion yuan and 72.51 (+ 2.78) billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.3%, + 18.5% and + 16.6% respectively, and EPS of 41.76 (constant) yuan, 49.49 (+ 1.46) yuan and 57.73 (+ 2.21) yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding PE price is 49.1, 41.4 and 35.5 times respectively, Maintain the "buy" rating.
In the fourth quarter, the revenue of Maotai liquor accelerated, and the series of liquor actively controlled the rhythm
Q4 Maotai liquor is expected to have a revenue of 28.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.3%, which is significantly accelerated compared with the first three quarters. Mainly during the Mid Autumn Festival and national day, the launch of new products such as Xiangyi Wuzhou in the third quarter, and the unplanned launch of dealers at the end of November, the launch volume and average price of Maotai liquor have increased significantly. Q4 series liquor is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.3%, mainly due to the high growth rate in the first three quarters and the company's initiative to control the rhythm of the whole year.
Continuous market-oriented reform has created good conditions for channel profit recovery
Since 2018, due to the rapid rise in the price of Feitian products, the company has faced great political resistance to direct price increase. In the third quarter of 2021, taking the opportunity of the new chairman's appointment, the company's market response action was significantly accelerated: the dealers were allocated unplanned increment in November, the unpacking policy was cancelled in December, the price was effectively controlled, and the conditions for the company to gradually recover channel profits were improving day by day.
In 2022, the company's market-oriented reform will be accelerated, and there will be more positive changes in products, channels and prices
On the one hand, the product structure continues to upgrade. The launch of treasures at the end of December is an important step for the company to lay out the price of more than 5000 yuan. The development of high-end products will continue in 2022. In terms of channels, in addition to online and Ka, the company has room to improve the volume and price of enterprise group purchase, and the company's own e-commerce 2C system will continue to be promoted. In terms of price, we expect that Feitian's direct price increase needs careful planning, but the increase of dealers' unplanned delivery quota is a high probability event. At the same time, the prices of products other than Feitian have been raised one after another, and the prices of treasures have been raised in the recent 15 years.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
