Covid-19 antigen self-test related concept "dance in the wind" chain pharmacy anti epidemic terminal value is expected to be gradually reflected

On March 14, covid-19 drugs, covid-19 testing and other pharmaceutical related sectors continued to strengthen. As of the close, covid-19 drug index rose 3.07%. Among them, Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) "20cm" limit, Xinxiang Tuoxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(301089) increase of 12.40%, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) limit, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) increase of more than 9%. In the covid-19 testing sector, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) increased by 13.59%, Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) increased by 12.69%, Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Shanghai Haishun New Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.Ltd(300501) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) increased by more than 9%.

For the current market performance, Hu Qimu, chief researcher of Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily: "Recently, there have been many clustering epidemics. Although the situation of epidemic prevention and control is generally controllable, the situation in some areas is grim and complicated, resulting in the incremental demand for COVID-19 pharmaceutical products and services. In March 11th, the State Health Protection Commission announced that the State Council should respond to the New Coronavirus disease epidemic prevention and control mechanism integrated group on the basis of nucleic acid detection. The original detection was used as a supplement, and the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection was organized and formulated. Under the policy support, the share prices of relevant listed companies strengthened. "

On the news side, in addition to the covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme, on March 12, the State Food and Drug Administration issued a notice approving the change of covid-19 antigen product self-test application applications of Nanjing Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Beijing jinwofu, Shenzhen Huada Yinyuan, Guangzhou Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Beijing huaketai biology. On March 13, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the registration applications of five covid-19 antigen products, namely Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Tianjin BIOSIS, Chongqing Mingdao Jietai biology and Beijing Lepu diagnostics.

It is understood that the barrier of antigen detection itself is not high. In addition to the above-mentioned 10 enterprises, many enterprises in China have been able to mass produce antigen detection kits, but previously related products were mainly used for export. According to data from the General Administration of customs, according to data from the General Administration of customs, according to data from the General Administration of customs, in 2021, China has exported a total of 668993 billion yuan of covid-19 detection kits in 2021, and a single month in December 2021 will export more than 10 billion yuan in a single month in December 2021, with more than 10 billion yuan in a single month in December 2021, of which Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) 00463 \ \, and a single month in a single month in December 2021, with more than 10 billion billion billion yuan in a single month in 2021, with a single month of December 2021, 2021, with more than 10 billion billion billion billion billion yuan in a single month of 2021, of which of 2021 December, of which of which includes $100 billion and other companies have obtained the listing qualification of overseas covid-19 antigen reagent.

Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) replied on the investor platform: "the company has carried out the registration and declaration of covid-19 antigen detection reagent medical version and household version outside China." Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) also said that at present, the production capacity of covid-19 antigen detection products of the company is Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) people per day. In the future, it will be increased to 1 million people per day through plant expansion and process optimization. At present, the company's covid-19 virus antigen detection kit is mainly sold in Germany, Austria and other European countries, and has also opened a market in Hong Kong, China.

Contec Medical Systems Co.Ltd(300869) relevant person in charge told the reporter of Securities Daily that the company's covid-19 antigen detection kit (for professional use) has obtained the certificate of registration with the competent authorities of the European Union and has been included in the "white list" of epidemic prevention materials export of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) health products export chamber of Commerce. Now it has entered the European market with sufficient production capacity. At the same time, the company is also actively promoting China's registration and market access in other countries and regions.

Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) analyst Liu Enyang said, "From the perspective of the Chinese market, the current short-term competitive barriers are mainly registration approval and supply capacity. In addition to the listed products, other enterprises that have listed covid-19 antigen detection products overseas are expected to be the first to be approved. At present, the relevant quality evaluation standards and registration evaluation methods in China have not been released, and the evaluation time and speed of 1-3 years compared with the approval of conventional in vitro diagnostic kits are expected The plan has been accelerated. "

The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities Research Report shows that the market scale of China's antigen self-test in a single month will reach 11.2 billion yuan to 33.6 billion yuan if calculated according to the detection frequency of 1-2 times per capita per month at the peak, the ex factory unit price of 8-12 yuan and the total population of 1.4 billion yuan.

Guosheng Securities pointed out in the research report that although there is still a certain degree of uncertainty about the penetration rate of covid-19 antigen products, the approval speed of subsequent registration certificates and the sales price, we believe that even if it is estimated conservatively, the liberalization of covid-19 antigen detection can bring great marginal changes to the performance of most relevant enterprises.

With covid-19 antigen detection clearly taken as a supplementary detection method, in addition to the benefits of listed companies related to the industrial chain, in the view of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analyst Yuan Wei, "The anti epidemic terminal value of chain pharmacies is expected to be gradually reflected, and the stores may usher in a new increase in revenue. On the one hand, antigen detection is convenient and low-cost, which is expected to become a daily demand product; on the other hand, the sales of antigen detection products are expected to boost passenger flow and drive the sales of related products."

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