Today (March 14), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once again showed a shock adjustment pattern. The three major A-share indexes opened low in the whole line, with weak shocks in the morning. In the afternoon, the stock index further fell, showing a pulse downward trend. Finally, the three indexes basically closed at the lowest point of the whole day, with an obvious weak pattern.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the supply risk caused by short-term geopolitical events and other factors may continue to ferment, and the probability of overseas "stagflation" increases. It is still necessary to closely track the progress of geopolitical situation and the risks of supply shortage and liquidity brought by these factors. The impact of these factors on market sentiment may still need to be further digested, The market turnaround may occur after the marginal easing of macro risks such as inflation and geopolitics.
At the same time, structurally speaking, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that the current focus on new energy, semiconductor, medicine, military industry and other booming track leaders whose performance can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, the essential consumption sectors such as agriculture, food, textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in a performance inflection point. At present, China's epidemic concerns have reached a high level, and offline economic recovery related industries such as social service, retail, catering, shipping and traditional media are also ushering in the layout window period. The theme focuses on the digital economy, the concept of three children, food security, the reform of the comprehensive registration system, etc.
sector:
I. Aerospace
Dongguan securities mentioned that the valuation of the military industry and aviation sector has fallen below the average value of nearly a year, so it can be arranged at an appropriate time. In the short term, the global interest rate increase cycle may have an impact on companies with high valuation. Superimposed on the fact that the performance growth rate of some military industrial groups is lower than expected, the industry may have great volatility in the short term, but the short-term volatility will not affect the high prosperity of the industry during the whole "14th five year plan" period. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated. The United States and its allies are showing signs of shifting their strategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. The emergence of the US Navy in the South China Sea has become a norm. The number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation.
Minsheng Securities said that it is optimistic about the performance of the military industry in the aftermarket of 2022 based on the following points: 1) in the "three cycle superposition" proposed by our system, the industry gradually entered the "high growth" stage of supply-demand resonance during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and 2022, as the second year of the 14th five year plan, will still maintain high growth; 2) The company's performance confirms the high prosperity of the industrial chain. The contract liabilities disclosed in the 2021 interim report once again verify the sustainability of the high prosperity of the industry; 3) Since 2022, the sector has experienced a correction due to the impact of the market and some events, but the current position is at the bottom of the historical valuation. We expect the net profit of the industry to increase by more than 35% in 2022, with higher growth in the middle and upper reaches and high cost performance of the current configuration.
Capital Securities pointed out that by grasping the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth: 1) contract liabilities of main engine manufacturers + verification of advance receipts, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; The body system pays attention to Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from actual combat military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) , etc.
II. Covid-19 test
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the normalization of epidemic prevention should grasp the investment opportunities of antigen self-test and covid-19 oral drug industry chain. On March 11, the covid-19 epidemic prevention and control group of the State Council issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), adding antigen detection as a supplement to covid-19 detection. On March 12, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the application for self-test application of five covid-19 antigen products for listing. We believe that we should pay attention to China's antigen self-test market after the implementation of the policy. Antigen detection has the advantages of high efficiency, quickness and low cost. China's ten billion level antigen detection market is about to be opened.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that in the long-term perspective, assuming that the society under the normalization of covid-19 is open, it can be divided into static self-test and dynamic large-scale test according to the application scenarios of covid-19 antigen detection. In a comprehensive view, the market scale of antigen detection in the long-term perspective is 270 billion yuan.
The agency further pointed out that the upstream, middle and downstream industrial chain has great potential. The industrial chain can be divided into upstream raw materials, midstream product manufacturing and production and downstream terminal sales. The gross profit distribution of the industry is calculated according to the relevant gross profit margin level of the industry. After the calculation, the gross profit of the upstream, middle and downstream accounts for 14%, 24% and 60% respectively based on the terminal sales price.
Main raw materials and auxiliary materials for upstream production: main raw materials and auxiliary materials. Referring to the cost splitting of representative antigen listed companies, the sales cost rate of antigen detection is about 40%. In terms of specific splitting, antigen antibody accounts for 27%, NC film and PVC rubber sector account for 5%, auxiliary materials account for 34% and packaging materials account for 12%.
Manufacturing of midstream products: China's covid-19 antigen detection and self inspection products are ready to be issued. As of March 12, 2022, five covid-19 antigen detection products have been approved in China. It is expected that more manufacturers will get product registration certificates in the future. Considering the potential demand for antigen detection in China, it is expected that companies that have obtained CE certification and US EUA certification in China will also accelerate their registration applications in China.
Downstream terminal sales: the downstream terminals represented by different scenarios and different groups of people in antigen detection are different. According to the current situation of nucleic acid detection, it is inferred that the detection purchaser of grass-roots medical institutions and self-test isolation observers should be government medical insurance through bidding, while it is clear that self-test of community residents at their own expense is personal consumption.
In terms of retail, it is stipulated that it can be purchased through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.
From the perspective of investment suggestions and related targets, we pay attention to the investment opportunities of the whole industrial chain, and the relevant beneficiary listed companies are as follows:
In terms of upstream raw materials, antigen antibody reagents: Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , youningwei, Feipeng Biology (to be listed), etc; Auxiliary materials: Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co.Ltd(300030) , etc; Packaging materials: Shanghai Haishun New Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.Ltd(300501) , Xi'An Global Printing Co.Ltd(002799) , Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) , etc;
In terms of midstream production and manufacturing, China has been approved: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) ; Overseas approved: Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , an Xu biology, etc;
In terms of downstream terminal sales, retail pharmacies: Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd(000028) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , etc; Pharmaceutical e-commerce: JD health, Alibaba health, Ping an good doctor, Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , etc.
one drawing summary:
