This week's opinion update:
The financial data in February was lower than expected, and the "steady growth" policy was expected to be strengthened: the performance of the financial data in February was lower than the market expectation, reflecting that the current macro-economy is still facing downward pressure. In order to achieve the economic growth target of about 5.5% in 2022, the implementation of monetary policy may be strengthened. At present, the expectation of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates has increased, so as to stimulate demand and stabilize credit supply. According to the view of Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) bank group, it is still in the transmission process from "wide currency" to "wide credit". There is continuity in the market's expectation of "wide credit and stable growth", and more relevant policies conducive to the formation of physical workload will be introduced in the future. At the same time, we emphasize once again that 22 years will be a year for the accelerated issuance of REITs, and will also provide a new source of funds for "steady growth". Continue to be optimistic about the "steady growth" sector and enterprises with infrastructure operation assets.
Do not change the judgment of the recovery trend of real estate and wait for the time point of industrial chain layout: in February, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by - 45.9 billion, the first negative growth in 15 years, reflecting the weak expectation of residents' house purchase and the weak trend of real estate sales in the short term. However, the moderation of the real estate policy attitude has been clearly verified, and the probability regulation policy will continue to be relaxed, especially on the demand side, there will be continuous stimulating measures to stabilize the sales of the real estate market and promote the virtuous circle of the real estate industry. If the real estate sales data is observed to pick up later, the inflection point of the real estate chain fundamentals can be established. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of consumer building materials. We emphasize that the demand for completion has always been. Under the "guaranteed delivery" policy, if the capital situation of the real estate chain is alleviated, the glass market is expected to start quickly.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was - 4.36%, of which other structural materials sector increased the most (+ 1.03%) and glass sector decreased the most (- 6.54%); This week, CITIC construction index was - 2.51%, with the smallest decline (- 1.29%) in infrastructure construction and the largest decline (- 4.66%) in garden engineering; This week, the average decline of public equity REITs in infrastructure construction was - 4.51% (arithmetic average), of which Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT fell the least (- 1.13%), and laterite Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) reit fell the most (- 10.28%). High frequency data (3.5-3.11): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 508 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.34%; The storage capacity ratio was 60.63% and the chain ratio was -3.37pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2324 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of - 2.06%; The inventory was 55.31 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of + 8.16%. The average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 26 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass is 20.00 yuan / m2, which is the same month on month; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week is 6450 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.78%; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 10000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The purchasing point of consumer building materials is approaching (attention is recommended: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.).
Preferred combination: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (15xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.6xpb, revaluation of the value of existing operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (13xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the trend of emission reduction), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (8xpe, performance elasticity of float glass and valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (23xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
