\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicle
Several lithium battery companies announced their operations from January to February
We believe that: from the industry performance from January to February 2022, 1) in terms of new energy vehicle sales, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in January and mid February 2022 decreased by 18.6% and 22.6% to 431000 and 334000 respectively, but maintained a high sales level, which is in line with the industry trend that the first quarter is the relatively low season of the whole year, The whole is in line with expectations. 2) In terms of power battery installed capacity, from January to February 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 29.9gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 109.7%, which is more consistent with the year-on-year growth trend of new energy vehicles. 3) In terms of the performance of Companies in the lithium battery industry chain, under the influence of the current relatively off-season and the rapid fluctuation of raw material prices, including cathode, electrolyte, diaphragm and other links, the company achieved the year-on-year high-speed growth of performance from January to February (or January to March) in 2022 with its strong capacity expansion, customer expansion, product optimization, upstream and downstream control and other capabilities, It is expected that a good start will be achieved in the first quarter of 2022. With the subsequent improvement of downstream demand and the easing of raw material pressure, high-quality companies in all links will continue to benefit from the development of the industry, and the annual performance is expected to achieve good growth.
Core view:
We believe that the new energy vehicle industry is gradually changing from policy driven to market driven. Driven by the continuous improvement of cost performance and the continuous increase in the supply of high-quality models, new energy vehicles are expected to enter the stage of accelerated penetration. Optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, Tesla, new forces and other auto enterprises, as well as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG Chemical and other power battery supply chains;
The expansion of long life, fast charging demand and the landing of new technologies such as 4680 battery bring 2) opportunities for high nickel cathode materials, silicon-based cathode materials, conductive agents and new lithium salts;
3) subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantage targets in the industry competition;
4) the demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries brought about by the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials continues to be optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industrial demand;
6) second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
7) subdivided links with structural opportunities such as energy storage and two wheeled vehicles, as well as continuously improved charging and replacement facilities.
Beneficiary targets include: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducamongamong the following: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducamongamong among the following: ducducducducamongamong among the following: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) etc.
\u3000\u30002. new energy
In the first quarter of 2022, the demand of photovoltaic industry is strong
In the first quarter of 2022, the off-season of photovoltaic industry is not light, and the industry maintains a high Outlook:
1) the price of silicon material is strong and rises slightly. This week, the average transaction price of China’s single crystal re feeding was 246600 yuan / ton, up 6.4% from 231800 yuan / ton in early January, and the industry demand continued to be strong. According to the silicon industry branch, all silicon material enterprises signed long orders in March, and the transaction price showed an upward trend due to the relative shortage of silicon material supply;
2) the heat of household photovoltaic shall not be reduced. According to Zhihui PV, in December 2021 and January 2022, the shipment of inverters for household PV increased sharply within 50KW. It is expected that the new installed capacity of household PV in January 2022 will exceed 2gw, and the year-on-year increase is expected to exceed 545%;
The new output of silicon material is expected to be released, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise. Throughout the year, with the gradual production of new production capacity of polysilicon manufacturers and the gradual promotion of technical transformation projects, the shortage of polysilicon supply may be alleviated, the subsequent supply capacity will be improved, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, the quantity and profit transmission of downstream links, the demand price elasticity of photovoltaic is expected to improve, and the prosperity of photovoltaic industry this year will continue to be optimistic.
Core view:
(1) photovoltaic
In the medium and long term, “carbon peaking”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. Photovoltaic and other new energy will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future.
Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary targets include: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ;, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc.
(2) wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; Large scale wind power projects and offshore wind power projects are expected to continue to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. We continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern changes, such as tower, spindle, casting, blade and other links; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Optimistic about the opportunities under the changes of the whole machine link pattern and technology; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
The subject of beneficiaries include the following of the subject of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) etc.
(3) energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, the energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the integration of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system under the development opportunity of energy storage
Main line.
Beneficiary targets include: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) wait.
\u3000\u30003. Risk statement
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power rationing did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The development of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
