Zhou view: the most difficult stage in the short term is about to pass, and the three-way layout rebounds
(1) new energy vehicles: from the perspective of the global situation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused negative liquidity feedback, and the industry valuation has been further compressed. From the perspective of China's situation, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain has reached the critical point: the negative feedback of the price rise of upstream lithium carbonate has penetrated from low-end demand to medium and high-end demand, and the leading companies have reduced procurement. We expect that the upstream price will soon see a high point, the next year will be a high fluctuation trend, and the pressure on the middle and lower reaches will be gradually relieved. From the perspective of listed companies, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) and other companies increase the layout of binding talents through repurchase, equity incentive and employee stock ownership, which is expected to further consolidate the short-term bottom; This phenomenon is also reflected in the main industrial chains of photovoltaic and other new energy, such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and other companies. New energy is the foundation of the main growth track, and will be strengthened in the listed companies themselves. We believe that the growth environment of the industry will improve marginally in the next one or two months, and we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (battery, lithium resources, diaphragm, negative electrode, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies will benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and so on; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: in the coming year, the expansion of distributed photovoltaic will exceed expectations, and the expansion of new technologies such as photovoltaic high-efficiency cells in the future will exceed expectations. In the short term, the supply side of upstream silicon materials will be gradually released, and the growth environment will be further straightened out. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and other benefits; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) etc. (c) Power station and other post cycle links, Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , etc.
(3) wind power: the price reduction of industrial chain products has formed a good positive demand feedback, and the bidding price has reached the relative bottom range; The real parity upward cycle will be started in 2022, and the industry valuation system is expected to be reshaped. Companies like Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and others will benefit from long-term bullish on offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts.
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : the evolution of photovoltaic king is accelerated, and equity incentive benefits in the long term
According to the announcement, the investment scale of Qujing (phase II) monocrystalline silicon wafer project has been changed from 20GW per year to 30GW per year. By the end of 2021, the company's silicon wafer production capacity was 110gw. With this expansion, the company's silicon wafer production capacity is expected to reach 140150gw by the end of 2022. According to our statistics, the new capacity of silicon wafer in 2022 will exceed 290gw, and the silicon wafer sector will face intensified competition.
Sector and company tracking
New energy automobile industry: the pressure of raw material cost was transmitted to the electric vehicle terminal market, and a number of automobile enterprises announced price increases
New energy automobile company: Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) issued the prospectus for the fixed increase of tickets in 2021 (Registration draft)
Photovoltaic industry: Tianjin and Sichuan released the 14th five year plan for renewable energy development
Photovoltaic company level: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) release the production and marketing operation express from January to February 2022
At the level of wind energy industry: Statistics of 31 wind power projects from January to February: the total scale is 5788.1mw, and 12 complete machine manufacturers won the bid
At the level of wind energy company: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) issued the announcement on the proposed transfer of equity of Jiangxi Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) Co., Ltd
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
