Key recommendations include: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , China water, Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) , Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) , Fujian Longma Environmental Sanitation Equipment Co.Ltd(603686) , China Resourcesand Environment Co.Ltd(600217)
Suggestions for attention: Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) , China Tianying Inc(000035) , conch entrepreneurship, Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008)
The Ministry of ecological environment, the national development and Reform Commission, the Chongqing municipal government and the Sichuan provincial government issued the ecological and environmental protection plan of Chengdu Chongqing twin city economic circle. The plan sets 12 indicators around four aspects: green and low-carbon development, ecological protection and restoration, ecological environment quality and human settlement environment improvement, of which 7 indicators are binding indicators. Among the seven binding indicators, the carbon dioxide emission per unit GDP will be reduced by 19.5%, the area of ecological protection red line will not be reduced, the ratio of days with excellent air quality in prefecture level and above cities will not be less than 89.4%, and the PM2 in prefecture level and above cities 5. The concentration decreased by more than 13%, the proportion of water quality in national control sections reaching or better than Class III reached 96%, the water quality compliance rate of national control sections of transboundary rivers was stable and good, and the ecological flow of main sections of rivers reached more than 90%.
Ministry of housing and urban rural development: Notice on printing and distributing the development plan of building energy conservation and green buildings in the 14th five year plan. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued a notice on printing and distributing the development plan of building energy conservation and green buildings in the 14th five year plan. The plan proposes that by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, and the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, The installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings nationwide is more than 50 million KW, the building application area of geothermal energy is more than 100 million square meters, the replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings is 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption is more than 55%.
Benchmarking the EU to see the development of China’s carbon market: the two core mechanisms are taking shape, the carbon price is rising for a long time, and CCER is bullish for a short time. For the resumption of the EU carbon market, the total amount control and MSR mechanism are the key to the carbon price balance. The development of China’s carbon market is similar to that of the EU, and has the prototype of the total amount control market regulation mechanism. At present, the transaction scale and covering industries have large room to improve, the carbon price is far lower than overseas, the double carbon target time is tight, the task is heavy, the total amount tightening drives the carbon price to rise for a long time, and the carbon market releases the demand of CCER, Previously, the recorded emission reduction of CCER in China totaled more than 50 million tons, which took four years. We expect to basically fulfill the contract, and the approval policy is expected to restart. We expect the supply scarcity price of CCER to rise in the near future.
Carbon neutralization investment framework and environmental protection industry mapping: build an investment framework from front-end energy substitution, middle-end energy conservation and emission reduction and back-end recycling, and provide effective institutional support for carbon trading. From the perspective of environmental protection, 1) energy substitution: adjust the front-end energy structure, and pay attention to the substitution demand of sanitation new energy equipment and renewable energy (waste incineration, etc.). 2) Energy conservation and emission reduction: promote industrial transformation in the middle end and pay attention to energy conservation management & Application of emission reduction equipment. 3) Recycling: promote the recycling of renewable resources such as waste classification, waste household appliances / cars and hazardous waste recycling. 4) Environmental consultation: the improvement of environmental management promotes the expansion of the demand for environmental consultation. 5) Carbon trading: encourage the development of CCER projects such as renewable energy (waste incineration / biomass utilization), methane utilization (sewage treatment / biogas utilization), forestry carbon sequestration, etc.
Steady growth + new tools + new fields, comprehensively recommend low-carbon environmental protection assets: 1) environmental asset value + Growth Logic 2.0: a) steady growth + new tools + new fields, from single dimension to combination. ① Policy +: double carbon macro policy, strengthening and increasing infrastructure investment; ② Mode +: REIT s improves the return on assets and opens the growth ceiling; ③ Space +: the second growth curve. B) The value of cash flow driven by marketization is further highlighted: policy tools such as CCER green power, waste incineration bidding and marketization of water price enhance the certainty of return and improve cash flow. 2) Under the new logic, the valuation anchor has been significantly improved: undervalued + low position + growth, improved model and cash flow, and improved valuation. 3) Suggestions: a) steady growth / high dividends / REITs: waste incineration [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ], water + pipe network [ Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) ] [ Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) ], water supply price increase + direct drinking water [China water]. B) new track: 1. Renewable resources: the most economical carbon premium + resource price increase: hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ], Baijiu liquor tank recycling [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ], power battery reuse [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ], recycled plastics [ Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) ]; ② Hydrogen energy: [ Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) ]; ③ High matte: [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ].
Latest research: Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) depth: a new star in biotechnology, and the expansion of the leading resource of distiller’s grains is imminent Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) : strategic cooperation with jd.com to create a lithium battery recycling ecology.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the interest rate rises more than expected, and the fiscal expenditure is lower than expected.
