Overseas coal prices have soared, and coking coal prices are expected to run strongly. According to wind data, as of March 11, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 3350 yuan / ton, up 420 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. As of March 10, the spot index of hard coking coal of Fengjing mine in Australia was US $689.55/ton, up US $129.55/ton on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, affected by the two sessions, local safety inspections were strictly implemented, and the output of coal mines was limited. Moreover, the epidemic affected some coal mines in some areas, which slightly hindered the shipment, so that the supply of coking coal market continued to be tight. In the downstream, the supply of raw coal is tightening, and the arrival of some coke steel enterprises is less than expected. At present, most of them are still actively replenishing the warehouse. However, the cost side price rises, the profits of coke enterprises continue to tighten, and some coke enterprises’ enthusiasm for raw coal procurement begins to slow down. On the whole, the coking coal price is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term. Overseas, due to the impact of rainstorm weather, the shipment of some countries is blocked, and the export of Russian coal is stagnant, the supply of imported coal is limited, and the quotation continues to break through new highs, which supports China’s coking coal market.
The price of thermal coal is running strongly. In terms of supply, at present, the main real estate sales are good, and most of them are mainly to ensure the long-term association, resulting in a more tight supply of coal resources in the market. In terms of downstream demand, with the continuous promotion of resumption of production and work, the enthusiasm of cement and chemical industry to replenish inventory is high. Overseas, affected by changes in international relations and rainstorm weather, the available quantity of overseas coal market has declined. Japan and South Korea have increased their procurement of Indonesian coal. While the quotation of Indonesian coal continues to rise, the quantity to China has decreased, resulting in a certain gap in China’s supply and still supporting the coal price. In the later stage, we need to continue to pay attention to the intervention of the policy side on coal price and the decline rate of daily consumption of power plants.
Coke price is expected to be strong. According to the coal resources network, the environmental protection control on the supply side was relatively strict during the two sessions. At the same time, the procurement of raw materials in some regions was tight, and the rapid rebound in the price of raw coal led to losses in some coking enterprises, making it difficult to improve the operating rate. However, due to the influence of the two sessions this week, the start-up of downstream steel mills fell slightly, but the start-up rate is expected to rise after the two sessions. At the same time, due to the control of the recent epidemic, the arrival of coke is not timely, the inventory in the plant is low, and the purchase demand supports the price. On the whole, the coke inventory of coke enterprises is low, and some coke enterprises have strong expectations of active and passive production restriction. Some coke resources are in short supply. Steel mills have good demand for coke, and the supply and demand side of coke continues to be tight. It is expected that the coke market may be strong in the short term.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Risk of policy change.
