Event: on March 11, the central bank released February social finance and financial data. At the end of February, the stock of social finance was 321.12 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% (the growth rate decreased by 0.3pct month on month). In February, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion, 520 billion less than the same period last year. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.6pct month on month; M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 6.6pct month on month. Our comments are as follows:
The growth rate of social finance fell month on month, and the increment of social finance and credit was weak. At the end of February, the stock of social finance increased by 10.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell slightly month on month. In February, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 520 billion, mainly due to weak credit increment. RMB loans increased by 908.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 431.6 billion. It is speculated that the bank invested a large number of early-stage reserve projects in January, and the current demand for new credit is still weak. In addition, corporate bonds increased by 337.7 billion, an increase of 207.1 billion year-on-year. Government bonds increased by 272.2 billion, an increase of 170.5 billion year-on-year, maintaining a rapid issuance. In terms of off balance sheet financing, entrusted loans decreased by 7.4 billion, trust loans decreased by 75.1 billion and undiscounted silver notes decreased by 42.28 billion. The amount and structure of credit are weak, and the demand of enterprises and residents is insufficient. At the end of February, the balance of RMB loans increased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 1bp month on month. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion, and the increase is generally weak.
(1) enterprise loans: the volume and structure are weak, and the follow-up policies still need to be strengthened. In February, corporate loans increased by 1.24 trillion, an increase of 40 billion year-on-year. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 505.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 594.8 billion. It reflects that the current real financing demand is still weak. There is a certain lag from the level of steady growth policy to the implementation of infrastructure projects, and then to driving the growth of supporting credit demand, and the recovery of real demand is slow. It is speculated that commercial banks have basically put in early-stage reserve projects in January. Under the background of insufficient demand in February, they are more replenished through bill financing and short-term loans. In February, new short-term loans for enterprises increased by 411.1 billion, an increase of 161.4 billion year-on-year; New bill financing was 305.2 billion, an increase of 490.7 billion year-on-year. Due to the frequent outbreaks in various places recently, it may affect the promotion speed of infrastructure projects, and the growth of supporting loans may be slow. In the context of higher economic growth targets throughout the year, it is expected that the follow-up steady growth policy will be further strengthened.
(2) resident Loans: medium and long-term loans decreased in a single month, and residents’ demand for house purchase and consumption was weak. Residents’ loans decreased by 336.9 billion in February; Among them, residents’ short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22 billion; Medium and long-term loans to residents decreased by 45.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion. Historically, residents’ medium – and long-term loans only grew negatively in a single month in December 2008, reflecting the weak demand for residents’ house purchase and mortgage loans in February. However, considering that all localities have recently relaxed the real estate demand side policies, including reducing the down payment ratio, housing loan interest rate, increasing the maximum amount of provident fund loans, etc; It may improve market expectations and boost real estate sales and residents’ demand for mortgage loans.
The growth rate of M2 and M1 improved month on month. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.6pct month on month. M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 6.6pct month on month. In February, residents’ deposits decreased by 292.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.55 trillion. Corporate deposits increased by 138.9 billion, an increase of 2.56 trillion. Deposits in non banking financial institutions increased by 1.39 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 220 billion. Fiscal deposits increased by 600.2 billion, an increase of 1.45 trillion year-on-year; It reflects that the progress of infrastructure projects and the speed of financial expenditure are slow.
Investment suggestion: the social finance data in February reflected that the physical demand was still weak. It reflects that there is a lag in steady growth from the policy to the implementation of infrastructure projects, and then to the demand for supporting credit; It still takes time from the relaxation of the real estate demand side policy to the recovery of residents’ house purchase demand. We expect that in the context of this year’s higher economic growth target, the follow-up steady growth policy will further strengthen and repair market expectations.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the performance of the banking sector is uncertain, with little potential adverse pressure. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.59 times the static Pb valuation, which is at a historical low. We believe that the policy of broad credit and steady growth continues to work, and the valuation repair market of the banking sector is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to select banks with customer base, sales channels and product service system first mover advantages in the field of wealth management ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality small and medium-sized banks with regional advantages and market-oriented systems and mechanisms ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
