Core view
Under the risk of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, the price of feed raw materials continues to rise. Since the beginning of the year, wheat, soybean meal and other feed raw materials have increased significantly, up 12.3% and 39.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 23.5% and 44.2%. The rise of raw material prices has driven the rise of feed prices to a certain extent. Since the beginning of the year, the compound feed for fattening pigs and the compound feed for broilers have increased by 3.0% and 1.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.
The rise in raw material prices will eventually be transmitted to the breeding end, driving up the breeding cost. Taking pig breeding as an example, assuming that the feed meat ratio is 2.8, with the addition ratio of 20% soybean meal, the price increase of 20% - 40% will lead to the increase of breeding cost by 0.3-0.6 yuan / kg; With the addition of 10% bran, the price increase of 5% - 15% will lead to the increase of breeding cost by 0.03-0.09 yuan / kg.
Pig prices remain depressed, and raw material prices rise or exacerbate losses. The price of live pigs continued to decline this week. The national average price of Boya Hexun was 12.01 yuan / kg, down 2.83% from last week. The average loss of self breeding heads was 517.85 yuan / head, 36.05 yuan / head from last week. The average loss of heads has been ahead of several cycles. The rise in the price of raw materials may further amplify the loss range, and the deregulation of production capacity caused by industrial losses is worthy of attention.
Risk tips
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, epidemic risk, policy risk, industry competition and product risk
