Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535 \ ) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ); Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials fell, LPG gas fell, LNG gas rose, and coal price was flat; The prices of C3, C4, aromatics, chlor alkali, chemical fertilizer, polyurethane and plastics increased.
This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 3.2%; The price of core raw materials is – 5.7%, imported LPG – 3.7%, domestic LNG + 6.5%, and bituminous coal is flat.
On the raw material side, the prices of C3, C4 and aromatics products rose, while the prices of C2 products fell; On the product side, the prices of chlor alkali, chemical fertilizer, polyurethane and plastics rose, while the prices of phosphorus chemical and pesticide products fell.
Oil prices fell this week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased, and the market demand still exists.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution fell from 118.1 to 111.4 US dollars / barrel (down 5.7%), and the settlement price of American oil fell from 115.7 to 107.8 US dollars / barrel (down 6.8%); The US commercial crude oil inventory was 412 million barrels (Mom – 0.5%), and the number of US crude oil drilling wells was 527 (mom + 1.5%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, due to the signs of easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market’s concerns about supply risks have weakened, and the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue are still in full swing in the final stage. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, although Russia’s crude oil export is restricted in the short term, the just demand is still there. The United States has also stated that once Russia stops military operations, it will cancel the new sanctions imposed recently. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Fed may raise interest rates in mid and late March, and the US dollar is also expected to strengthen in the near future, which is negative pressure on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Russia and Ukraine shows signs of easing. In addition, the United States and Iran said that the nuclear issue negotiations have come to an end.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: natural gas futures in Europe and the United States fell this week, with NBP – 6.59%, TTF – 6.26%, HH – 4.83% and AECO – 9.65%. On the spot side, the strong rise of HH + 5.5% continued; Canada AECO spot chain was + 25.82%, and Europe TTF spot chain was + 68.84%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10946 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 4.60%, the average sales price at the terminal was 8163 yuan / ton, and the price difference was – 532 yuan / ton (+ 6.12%).
Inventory tracking: European and American natural gas inventories continued to decline this week. According to EIA data, as of March 4, the US natural gas inventory was 1519 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 124 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 7.50%, year-on-year ratio of – 15.60%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of March 4, the European natural gas inventory was 1051 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 68.9 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 6.15%, year-on-year ratio of – 21.17%).
China’s price: China’s LNG fell slightly this week. As of March 10, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 7471 yuan / ton, down from – 2.61% last week; The prices of consumer places went down synchronously. As of March 10, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 8249 yuan / ton, down – 3.63% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8712 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 1.21%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are acetic acid + 40%, ammonium sulfate + 38%, acetic anhydride + 15%, butadiene + 15%, ethyl acetate + 14%, MTBE + 11%, isobutene + 10%, potassium sulfate + 9%, PMMA + 9%, CIS polybutadiene rubber + 9%, epichlorohydrin + 9%, styrene butadiene rubber + 8%, ABS + 7%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are glufosinate-20%, glycine-17%, tetrachloroethylene-14%, hydrogen peroxide-13%, acetonitrile-11%, phosphorus trichloride-9%, r22-6%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon + 2%, trichlorosilane is the same, soda ash (light and heavy), vinyl acetate is the same, and EVA (photovoltaic grade) is equal. Chemical products related to lithium industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid – 2%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 2%, battery grade + 2%), iron phosphate + 2%, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
Methanol supports the cost, the manufacturer’s maintenance plan is released in advance, and the price of acetic acid rises sharply.
Acetic acid (East China) rose 40.3% to 5050 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, methanol (East China) rose 2.5% to 3130 yuan / ton this week, forming a cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, acetate start-up continued to explore slightly and basically recovered to the pre holiday level. In addition, the manufacturer’s maintenance plan was released in advance, and the downstream mentality was loose; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu and Jiantao plans to stop for maintenance on March 22. It is expected that in 25 days, the two major factories in East China also have maintenance plans in mid and late March, forming a favorable situation.
The international situation ferments, spring ploughing continues to advance, and the price of ammonium sulfate rises.
Ammonium sulfate (Linyi, Shandong) rose 38.4% to 1730 yuan / ton this week. The international situation affects the increase of grain prices and urea prices, which is good for ammonium sulfate. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, in the promotion of spring ploughing, traders are actively preparing fertilizer, and the price of chemical fertilizer is also strong and rising. At present, the demand outside China is slowly increasing, and the terminal consumption is on demand; At the supply end, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current supply surface of ammonium sulfate is basically stable.
Geopolitical tensions, higher external prices and higher butadiene prices.
Butadiene (East China) rose 14.9% to 10000 yuan / ton this week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, because the United States banned the import of Russian oil, the United Kingdom said it would gradually stop the import before the end of the year, which is expected to further disrupt the global energy market. In addition, the internal and external prices of butadiene continued to rise, butadiene (FOB in Korea) Rose 16.8% to US $1250 / ton this week, boosting the mentality; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream tire market of the terminal resumed work earlier, but the overall downstream demand is general; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu and PetroChina Taiwan, after the restart of No. 4 cracking unit and No. 9 cracking unit in Linyuan, it is currently operating at 70% load. The annual production capacity of Yangzi Petrochemical is 120000 tons / year. The planned maintenance time is in the middle of March. The extraction unit with annual production capacity of 100000 tons / year in Nanjing Chengzhi was briefly restarted and shut down on February 26.
Acetic acid forms cost support, the bidding price of main manufacturers rises, and the price of ethyl acetate rises.
Ethyl acetate (East China) rose 13.9% to 8010 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, acetic acid (East China) rose 40.3% to 5050 yuan / ton this week, forming a strong cost support for ethyl acetate; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream market is still in the off-season; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the bidding prices of the main manufacturers in Shandong continued to rise, and the transaction was in good condition. The commencement of ethyl acetate increased this week, the devices of manufacturers in Southwest China restarted this week, the device load of manufacturers in East and South China increased, and the overall supply of the market was sufficient.
The difficulty in purchasing raw materials and the shortage of spot in the market have pushed up the price of potassium sulfate.
Potassium sulfate (50%, Shandong) rose 9.3% to 4700 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw material market is in short supply due to the international situation, and it is difficult to purchase the source of goods; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, there is still some demand to be released in the downstream; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the early maintenance manufacturers have basically resumed normal production, and a small number have not started work, but the manufacturer’s inventory remains low. In terms of import, there are few ships in ports, large traders continue to stop selling, and the market circulation spot is in short supply.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
