Oil price fluctuation will directly affect the transportation cost of express industry
From the perspective of cost structure splitting of express delivery enterprises, transportation cost is the main cost source of franchise access system, accounting for about 26% of the cost, while fuel cost accounts for about 25% of the transportation cost; For SF, a direct operating enterprise, labor cost is the main source of cost, and the transportation cost accounts for about 11% of the cost. As the transportation mode involves land transportation and aviation, the fuel cost accounts for about 30% of the transportation cost of SF.
The actual impact of rising oil prices on the transportation costs of the express industry is limited
Under the regulation of the national development and Reform Commission, the change range of China’s refined oil price is much smaller than that of crude oil price. Compared with the beginning of 2022, the price of diesel oil increased by 15% on March 4, while the price of crude oil has increased by 50%.
According to rough calculation, the annual cost impact of 10% of the fuel price rise on express enterprises is about 100400 million yuan, accounting for 4% – 14% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in that year, but the actual impact probability is lower than the calculated value for three reasons:
① the performance elasticity brought by the repair of single ticket income is higher than that brought by the change of single ticket cost. Take Yuantong as an example. In January 2022, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong increased by 14.55% year-on-year to 2.72 yuan, an increase of 0.22 yuan month on month. If the fuel price increased by 10%, the increased single ticket cost was about 0.13 yuan.
② the express industry is an industry with strong scale effect. The continuous promotion of scale growth and fine management will improve the loading rate and optimize the line, which is expected to dilute the new fuel cost.
③ supported by the continuous consolidation of the stability of the industry structure, Tongda system and SF are expected to transmit the pressure of variable costs to the downstream through price increases in the future, and successfully improve their anti inflation ability through price increases.
Grasp the investment opportunities of the express industry and continue to recommend the head express enterprises
The stability of the pattern continues, focusing on recommending e-commerce express enterprises with both volume and price – Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) . From January to February 2022, the single ticket revenue of e-commerce express enterprises increased significantly, and the stability of the industry pattern continued to be verified. It is optimistic that e-commerce express enterprises will gradually repair their cash flow and steadily improve their profitability under the support of improved pattern, and grasp the sector investment opportunities of e-commerce express industry.
Continue to recommend that the valuation return to the bottom range and the option value of new business highlights S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . Looking forward to 2022, SF aging parts will develop steadily, and new business will gradually develop to a new stage of balancing flow growth and profitability. Brand synergy and business synergy have helped SF’s new business establish an advantageous position and determine the direction of profitability. With the gradual emergence of inflection points and growth dividends of subdivided track pattern, SF is optimistic about its leading position and competitive advantage in the comprehensive logistics track for a long time.
Industry rating and investment strategy e-commerce express buying pattern and comprehensive logistics buying layout, so as to grasp the sector investment opportunities of the express industry. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating.
Focus on recommending individual stocks Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the e-commerce express price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, the franchisees are out of position, the growth rate of time-effective parts is lower than expected, the merger and integration is lower than expected, and the uncertain impact of oil price.
