Market review: this week (March 7 to March 11, 2022), the weekly decline of Shenwan food and beverage industry was – 2.06%, which was less than the decline of – 4.65% in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300; Among them, Baijiu (shenwan3, the same below) (0.91%) sectors were among the top three in Shenwan third class food and beverage sectors. Cooked food (- 7.76%), snacks (- 6.67%) and soft drinks (- 6.19%) ranked the top three in the decline of Shenwan level III food and beverage.
Many Baijiu enterprises successfully achieved “a good start”, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) clear. This week Moutai, Fen Baijiu, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) concentrated on 1-2 months’ business data. The revenue side increased by 20%/35%/25%/120% respectively, and the profit side increased by 20%/50%/26%/130% respectively. Both achieved rapid growth and achieved a smooth start. In addition, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) released the performance forecast for 21 years. Q4 revenue increased by 11% / 24% and profit side increased by 11% / 32% respectively. The first year of the 14th five year plan started smoothly. In addition, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) defines the business ideas of supporting the price of the general five controls in 2022, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) focuses on cultivating and creating scarcity. The new leadership has a clear strategic direction, which is helpful to the repair of the company’s valuation. We believe that the logic of consumption upgrading, head concentration and price driving is still in the process. Recently, the epidemic has been repeated frequently. The normalization of prevention and control has limited impact on the consumption of liquor consumption. The main idea of maintaining the three main lines of Baijiu liquor is currently being maintained: the first line is to recommend the Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) with strong demand for 100200 prices. Main line ② it is suggested to pay attention to certainty and underestimation Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ; Main line ③ it is suggested to pay attention to the sub high-end leaders Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) .
The planned investment scale is growing rapidly, and the rapid economic growth of Anhui will help to stimulate wine consumption. In 2022, the annual planned investment scale of Anhui reached 165724 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% and continued to grow rapidly (the investment scale in 2021 was 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%). In recent years, Anhui’s economy has grown rapidly. In 2021, the province’s GDP reached 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% at the same time, significantly ahead of the national GDP growth rate of 8.1%, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 9.4%, also ahead of the national fixed asset investment growth rate of 4.9%. Baijiu consumption is highly correlated with regional economic development speed and investment growth. The rapid economic development of Anhui province will help to promote liquor consumption and consumption upgrading. The sustained and rapid growth of planned investment will help to stimulate consumption of wine in the province. We hope that the 2022 Baijiu liquor will continue to benefit from the rapid economic development in the province.
The leading enterprises of popular goods are operating steadily and waiting for the recovery of consumption Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) announced the operation from January to February 2022, with a revenue of 21.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 15%, a total profit of 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 20%, and the operation data of leading enterprises are bright. We believe that under the tone of “stabilizing growth and promoting employment”, residents’ income has increased steadily and consumer confidence is still expected to pick up. The resulting consumption upgrading is still the long-term trend of industry development. Priority should be given to leading enterprises, dairy products Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , beer industry Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) . Under the upward pressure of inflation, we should pay attention to enterprises with stable competition pattern and the ability to raise prices. It is suggested to pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) .
Investment suggestion: Baijiu and popular products have a good start, and the consumption upgrading trend is expected to remain unchanged in 2022. Recommends a high level of high-end liquor Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional leading liquor companies. At the same time, we should also note the elasticity of the Baijiu Baijiu after the economic warming, the trend of high-end beer is not changed, the recommendation of sector is recommended, and dairy products are concerned about Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc.
