This week’s review of the non bank sector this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.4%, of which the non bank financial index fell 5.58%, the brokerage index fell 5.41%, the insurance index fell 6.29%, and the diversified financial index fell 4.06%.
Anxin non bank portfolio next week
Insurance: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) / China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601)
Brokerage: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) / China stock market news / Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776)
Diversified Finance: Avic Industry-Finance Holdings Co.Ltd(600705)
H shares: AIA / Lenovo Holdings“
Risk tips
Epidemic prevention and control is less than expected / economic recovery is less than expected / risk of policy change
Non bank sector investment story
Interpretation of important events this week:
This week, the market volatility intensified and the index fell sharply, including the Shanghai stock index fell 4%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22% and the gem fell 3.39%. The overall performance of financial heavyweights was in line with the market, with the brokerage sector down 5.39% and the insurance sector down 6.78%. This week, due to the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the significant intensification of the epidemic in China, the market is not full of emotion, so the overall adjustment of the market is fierce. In addition, the New Social Finance disclosed by the central bank in February was only 1.19 trillion yuan, 1.03 trillion yuan lower than the consensus expectation of the market, causing market concern. New loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan; The financing demand of the real economy is still freezing, the willingness of bank loans is insufficient, the pressure for steady growth has increased significantly, and the expectation of monetary easing has increased significantly. For the insurance sector, this week’s sector adjustment is fierce, and the valuations of large insurance companies are about 1 times Pb. Although the liability side is still under pressure, we believe that the central bank’s further credit easing efforts will be increased, and the credit side of real estate enterprises is expected to usher in marginal repair, which will promote the driving force of the recovery of insurance prices. Therefore, we are optimistic about the current round of valuation level repair of leading insurance companies Ping An and CPIC in the short term. For the securities sector, since the beginning of the year, the significant adjustment of the overall market and the gem has increased the pressure on the self operation of securities companies. In addition, due to the sharp reduction of the profit-making effect, the pressure on the sales and redemption of new development funds has doubled, and the risk aversion of market funds has increased, which may suppress the enthusiasm of the market to do more in the short term. However, in view of the increased efforts to broaden credit and the marginal improvement of market liquidity, it is suggested that investors should focus on Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the leader of institutional business, the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , the leader of wealth management.
Sub segment view:
(1) brokerage sector: we are optimistic about the growth of the brokerage sector. On the one hand, the comprehensive registration system reform is about to be implemented, and the brokerage companies will directly benefit from the business increment; On the other hand, short-term market fluctuations do not change the long-term trend of residents’ asset allocation adjustment and additional allocation of rights and interests. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading securities companies with undervalued value Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , as well as the securities companies with wealth management characteristics Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China stock market news, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) .
(2) insurance sector: Although the NBV growth rate of insurance companies is still under pressure, the expansion of the central bank’s credit easing will benefit the improvement of the credit margin of real estate companies and drive the asset side margin of insurance companies, which is expected to promote the stock price recovery of insurance companies and be optimistic about the valuation repair of leading insurance companies with undervalued value. It is suggested to focus on Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , where real estate risks have improved significantly, life insurance reform has continued to deepen, valuation is low, and property insurance has improved significantly.
(3) diversified financial sector: the accelerated implementation of the comprehensive registration system, the relaxation of the restrictions on the investment scope of insurance capital investment in venture capital institutions by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the increase of the investment scale of venture capital institutions by market funds, the venture capital industry is expected to usher in high performance growth. It is suggested to focus on Lenovo holdings, which is backed by the industrial resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and has high-quality investment institutions such as Junlian and Hony.
