Special report 1 of this week: expansion of energy-saving buildings, BIPV welcome again
(1) event: on March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green development (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which aims to complete the energy-saving transformation of existing buildings with an area of more than 350 million square meters and the construction of ultra-low and near zero energy consumption buildings with an area of more than 50 million square meters by 2025. The 13th five year plan focuses on the total amount and stock. For example, green construction accounts for 50% of new buildings, 600 million square meters of existing residential and public energy-saving transformation area, and 60% of energy-saving in existing residential buildings. The 14th five year plan pays more attention to specific ways of energy conservation, such as requiring the installed type to account for 30% of new buildings, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic installed capacity of 50 million KW, The new geothermal energy construction area is 100 million square meters, and the replacement rate of renewable energy has increased from 6% in 2020 to 8%. The task decomposition is more detailed and the landing has direction.
(2) BIPV is expected to continue to speed up. In 2021, the concept of BIPV has attracted great attention in the context of double carbon. BIPV or bapv continues to be hotly debated. Who is the mainstream of crystalline silicon vs thin film battery? It is widely discussed. With the promotion of the whole county and Longji’s strategy of taking shares Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , the integration of photovoltaic buildings has changed from recognition to recognition value, and then to economic practicability, especially in the field of industrial and commercial plant roofs and public building roofs. According to the plan, building photovoltaic action is a key project for renewable energy application (the only key project in column 6). It is proposed to “encourage photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises, investment and operation enterprises, power generation enterprises and building property owners to strengthen cooperation and explore photovoltaic application business models such as roof leasing, distributed power generation and market-oriented trading”. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, a total of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic installed capacity of 50gw was added. We believe that under the promotion of policies, building photovoltaic integration is expected to usher in new opportunities for development, including [ Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) ] [ Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) ] [ Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) ] [ Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) ].
Special report 2 of this week: special debt “early issuance and quick use”
(1) “early issuance”: 60% of the amount of special bonds approved in advance has been used. As of February 28, the issuance scale of local bonds was 1.2 trillion, of which 877.5 billion new special bonds were issued, completing 60.1% of the amount approved in advance. The progress is second only to the same period in 2020. Some provinces have completed the issuance of special bonds approved in advance. Considering the requirements of moderately advanced policy force, the remaining amount of 700 billion Yuan approved in advance in 2022 is expected to be issued by the end of March. In December 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued in advance the new local government debt limit of 1788 billion yuan in 2022, including 1460 billion yuan of special debt limit.
(2022) higher expectations for special debt. From 2019 to 2021, a total of 9.55 trillion yuan of local special bonds were added, but the growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) in the three years was 3.8%, 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. The pull of special bonds on infrastructure was not obvious. The main reason is that the reporting progress of the project is slow, the implementation of funds to specific projects is less than expected, and there are clear requirements for the quality and scope of the project. In 2022, the issuance target of local government special bonds was 3.65 trillion yuan, the same as last year. Combined with the amount of 1.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year + the advance batch of 1.46 trillion (expected to be released by the end of March), at least 2.66 trillion can be used for specific projects before the middle of the year to ensure the capital expenditure of key projects. The annual perspective is expected to reach 1.2 + 3.65 = 4.85 trillion. In terms of subject matter, it is suggested to focus on [ China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) ] [ Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ] [ China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) ] [ China Railway Group Limited(601390) ], and local state-owned enterprises include [ Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) ] [ Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ].
Risk warning: infrastructure investment is less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials.
