I. review and theme of this week:
This week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical index fell 2.07%, ranking fifth in the industry, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the gem index. This week, we sorted out the approval of covid-19 test reagents in many countries, and considered that short-term antigen test reagent enterprises should have the ability to see and obtain certificates, and long-term product strength and brand strength; In addition, we also sort out the relevant targets (antigens, packaging materials and pharmacies) of the original detection industrial chain for investors’ reference.
II. Recent resumption:
Performance this week: the pharmaceutical index fell slightly this week, following the market out of the v-week trend, but the rebound strength and sustainability in the later stage are slightly better than the market. In terms of subdivided fields, it is also a week of covid-19 epidemic line, and the intensity is: covid-19 self-test, covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, Pfizer therapeutic drug agent distribution and covid-19 therapeutic drug supply chain. The performance of traditional Chinese medicine was not as good as expected.
Cause analysis: the market fluctuated greatly this week, and the pharmaceutical sector will inevitably be affected, which is more due to the market. We expect a stronger rebound in medicine, driven by multi-point outbreaks in the medium and short term. In addition, the complex political and economic environment outside China also gives medicine, which has fallen for a long time, a comparative advantage among industries and slowly attracts funds for allocation. In terms of subdivided areas, the reason why the epidemic line is strong is that during this period, there were outbreaks in many provinces at the national level. In addition, the policy assistance of antigen detection and the acceleration of product approval ignited the enthusiasm of the market The commercial operation cooperation announcement between China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) and Pfizer covid-19 drugs ignited the theme of Pfizer therapeutic drug agent distribution. In addition, we observed that the supply chain of covid-19 therapeutic drugs is not so strong, which is related to the sharp increase in the supply side and the downward price of some intermediates. The performance of traditional Chinese medicine is not as good as expected, which is related to the higher than expected departure of the traditional Chinese medicine policy of the two sessions of the game. For other matters, when Guangdong centralized mining landed, growth hormone ushered in a wavelet repair, and the landing of related target boots also ushered in a certain repair due to price reduction. The SEC listed five companies as “delisting risk” issuers, which affected zhonggai and some biotechs.
Current outlook: there are many factors outside China that affect the market at the weekend. If you choose medicine, you should choose something from the strongest main line, that is, the epidemic line. Next week, you can pay attention to Pfizer MPP, covid-19 self-test, covid-19 vaccine, covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs and traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic. In fact, there are three aspects of medium and short-term medicine: covid-19, traditional Chinese medicine and the first quarterly report. From a one-year perspective, under the unique political and economic environment outside China this year, the relative comparative advantage of medicine has become more and more obvious after falling for nearly 9 months. It is suggested to gradually increase the attention and allocation of medicine.
III. sector view:
1. Thinking from the perspective of several years: the past 4-5 years have been a pharmaceutical bull market, and investment has paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track and enjoying valuation expansion”. The process of leaving the pharmaceutical bull market from the second half of 2021 to 2022 is to pay more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion”. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our vision. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of the rigid demand of medicine and the long-term pull of the upgrading of health consumption, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low. However, because we are worried about the reform policy of the payment end, we ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logical restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, while China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, The industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty ranks at the top of the list is medicine (the aging is intensifying, the expansion of just needed medicine, the upgrading of health consumption is intensifying, and the penetration rate of consumption medicine is increasing). It is optimistic for a long time. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of pharmaceutical science and technology, pharmaceutical consumption, pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical mode.
2. Medium and short term: medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the most phased direction. Our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “Fundamentals common sense valuation oversold discount”, in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of the irrational valuation range, Here you can take a look at the pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline, as well as the stocks with high recognition & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as Chinese covid-19, traditional Chinese medicine, self controlled, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
3. Configuration idea:
Covid-19 lines: (1) self test: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , etc. (2) Covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drug: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) . (3) Pfizer MPP. (4) Covid-19 vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) etc. (5) Traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) etc. (6) Covid-19 small molecule supply chain: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc Traditional Chinese medicine line: (1) national reform of traditional Chinese medicine: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) . (2) Innovative traditional Chinese medicine: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , etc.
(3) high growth of underestimated value of traditional Chinese medicine: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) .
Other business lines: (1) vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (2) The CrO ( Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) etc.); (4) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) ); (5) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) etc; (6) Rabies monoclonal antibody: Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) .
(7) A injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ).
For long-term tracking, there is a long-term track to look at the promising ones: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) \ , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) \ , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , China biopharmaceutical \, Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co.Ltd(688687) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations
