This week's topic
This week, we summarized and analyzed the following questions from the perspectives of energy storage, nuclear power, distributed photovoltaic and electricity price:
(1) how to view the development of energy storage from the policy side?
(2) how to view the investment opportunities of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) in 2022?
(3) what are the reasons for the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic installation?
(4) how much has the electricity price increased since 2022?
Core view
The top-level design of energy storage policies at the national level and the combination of storage allocation policies and subsidy policies at the local level will help the development of energy storage industry. According to the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30 million KW by 2025. The implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan proposes to reduce the system cost of electrochemical energy storage by more than 30% by 2025. Many provinces have clearly put forward the requirements for the allocation of energy storage. Among them, the proportion of new energy allocation and energy storage is mostly between 5% - 20%; The configuration hours are mostly 2 hours. In terms of subsidies, all localities give corresponding subsidies according to different indicators such as discharge, total investment, capacity electricity price and peak shaving, with a large price difference.
How to view the investment opportunities of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) in 2022? In terms of policy, the nuclear power industry is expected to usher in an intensive construction period during the 14th Five Year Plan period. We expect China to approve 6-8 nuclear power units per year from 2021 to 2025. In terms of technical iteration, high temperature gas cooled reactor has obvious advantages in high power generation efficiency and low-cost hydrogen production. After Document No. 1439, the market transaction electricity price has gradually increased, and the electricity priced by China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) market accounts for 37.06%, which is expected to fully enjoy the dividend of electricity price increase. In addition, the company actively distributes new energy and creates a second growth curve. In 2021, the company's annual new energy power generation amounted to 9.514 billion kwh, an increase of 68.7% over the same period last year.
Long term positive + short-term catalysis, the growth momentum of distributed photovoltaic is positive. In 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV exceeded 100gw. In the medium and long term, under the dual carbon target, we expect to add about 150175gw of distributed photovoltaic during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the short term, the storm of industrial and commercial power rationing and shutdown in 2021 strengthened the willingness of industrial and commercial enterprises to install roof photovoltaic. The new installed capacity of industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic in 2021q3 / Q4 reached 2.0/2.7gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 91% / + 24% respectively. The policy drive of the whole county is also the marginal catalytic factor of distributed photovoltaic. In 2021, the whole county promoted distributed photovoltaic pilot counties, with a cumulative filing capacity of 46.23gw.
The rising trend of electricity price will continue in 2022. Horizontally, the proxy power purchase price of power grids in all provinces and cities has increased significantly compared with the benchmark price of coal-fired power. Among them, the increase range of 8 provinces, including Tianjin and Shanghai, is more than 20%; Vertical comparison shows that the power purchase prices of power grids in some provinces and cities maintain an upward trend month by month in the first three months of 2022. Taking Jiangsu as an example, the agency power purchase price in Jiangsu Province rose by 8.8% in March compared with January. The market-oriented transaction price also increased significantly. Taking Yunnan Province as an example, the average transaction price of power plants in Yunnan Province in March was 026626 yuan / kWh, an increase of 6.4% / 11.4% respectively over the same period in 2021 / 2020.
Investment suggestion: the state has intensively issued favorable policies for energy storage, and the scale of energy storage is expected to expand rapidly in the future; The rising trend of electricity price will continue in 2022, and China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) market-oriented electricity transactions account for a relatively high proportion, which is expected to benefit from the dividend of electricity price rise; Distributed photovoltaic is continuously promoted by the dual carbon target in the medium and long term. In the short term, it is catalyzed by the promotion policy of the whole county, which is expected to maintain a high growth rate. In terms of specific targets, the proposal of thermal power transformation into new energy targets focuses on [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)]. New energy operators suggest paying attention to [Longyuan Power] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ]; Suggestions on the subject of energy storage operation focus on [ Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) ] [ Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ] [Shuifa Xingye energy] and so on.
Risk tips: the policy promotion is less than expected, the power demand is less than expected, the risk of price reduction, the risk of coal price fluctuation, etc.
