1. Current situation of Russian IT industry: “domestic” IT companies have less growth than expected
1) Russia launched the “national software platform project” in 2010. We expect to launch the “national software platform project” within 10 years of “Xinchuang” Russia, with the goal of full replacement of public institutions within five years. In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we did not see the IT system affected, and it is expected that it has been basically replaced.
2) however, twelve years later, at the industrial level, we have not seen the birth of IT giants. Whether it is nine head software outsourcing companies or two software product suppliers in Russia, we have not seen their great growth ten years later. Kaspersky is still only a familiar name. However, we believe that it is unnecessary to attribute the reason why there is no large IT company to product power. At least from the chip level, the product gap is not obvious.
2. The dilemma behind: is it the product problem? Maybe, but not all
The lack of product power in Russia is a fact, which can be seen from the core system of banks with the highest requirements for products. In contrast, the domestic core system of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) of China’s large bank is expected to be fully put into operation in March this year.
3. Market problem is the key: lack of iterative customer base and vast market demand
1) the core of software is iteration, and rich customer polishing is the premise of iteration: however, Russia lacks test field. The financial industry and telecommunications industry are underdeveloped, and the manufacturing industry has a weak foundation (one fifth of the employed population in the manufacturing industry is military workers).
2) in the context of sanctions, the sales of software only depends on domestic demand, while Russia’s domestic demand is insufficient. GDP determines the ceiling, which is difficult to form an internal cycle and support market sales.
4. China’s Enlightenment: with the help of industry Xinchuang, we firmly believe that China is expected to have a great it company. We have previously stressed in the report “in the name of finance, the opening of industry localization feast”, that party and government Xinchuang has limited significance for product inspection, and industry Xinchuang, especially financial Xinchuang (basic software) and industrial Xinchuang (industrial software) are the real test fields of domestic software, China has a rich and booming financial industry and an escalating manufacturing base.
The future of product power is not a problem, and China’s broad domestic demand is the basis for the booming sales of software products. China’s GDP is expected to keep approaching or even surpassing the United States in a certain period of time in the future, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) has broad market demand. At the same time, if the company can aim at globalization and the transformation of superimposed cloud mode (product separation and accelerated de piracy), the road of software giants is expected to be clearer and clearer.
Despite the recent significant adjustment of the market, we still firmly believe that “the semiconductor at the end of 18 years is the computer at the end of 21 years”. The Growth Logic of the industry in the next three to five years will be industry Xinchuang, which is represented by financial Xinchuang. Standing at the current time point “financial it, the winner of computer investment this year”, we are optimistic about Q1 performance. At the same time, 100 CIO surveys, 12 series of teleconferences and financial IT data research are repeatedly verifying our logic.
Market and sector trend review:
Last week, the computer sector fell 3.71%, the gem index fell 3.03% in the same period, and the CSI 300 fell 4.22%. The sector outperformed the market.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is depressed, major changes have taken place in sector policies and major changes have taken place in the international environment.
