Basic conclusion
Overall large consumption: as of March 9, a total of 526 listed companies of A-share large consumption have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021, accounting for 58% of the disclosed companies and 54% of the total market value. In terms of direction, the number of profitable companies accounts for 64%, the overall profit is more or less, and the number of companies with positive improvement in profitability accounts for nearly 47%. In terms of range, the overall net profit of large consumer industries in 2021 will be + 44.7% if the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries are not considered, or they have gradually got rid of the impact of the epidemic and entered the early stage of recovery.
Primary industry: in terms of the proportion of profit-making companies, beauty care / household appliances / light industry manufacturing are significantly better than the average level of large consumer industries, reaching 88% / 79% / 76% respectively, and nearly 80% of the companies are profitable. Food and beverage / textile and clothing / trade retail are close to the average level, with 71% / 70% / 67% respectively. Media / agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery / social services are lower than the average, and the number of profitable companies accounts for 60% / 46% / 43%. Taking the median value of the performance forecast range as the expected net profit, the growth rate of different industries is obviously differentiated. The net profit of beauty care / household appliances / food and beverage / light industry manufacturing was + 119.3% / + 82.4% / + 14.7% / – 11.7% year-on-year, which has always been profitable in the past three years. Media / textile and clothing turned losses into profits, with a year-on-year net profit of + 181.3% / + 119.4%; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery / commercial retail / social services fell into industrial losses due to the decline of pig cycle and the impact of the epidemic, with a year-on-year net profit of – 181.8% / – 980.7% / + 5.7%.
Secondary industry: throughout the 48 segments of A-share large consumption, the directional changes are basically consistent with the primary industry. In the Baijiu Baijiu, the number of the companies in the industry is strong, and the proportion of the 19-21 companies in the protection / cosmetics / household electrical appliances / small household appliances / liquor / packaging printing / paper making companies is relatively high, and the compound annual growth rate of the small household appliances / Baijiu / non liquor / paper is 75.0%/20.6%/13.1%/47.4%/35.1%. There is also structural growth in other sub sectors. For example, more than 90% of textile manufacturing companies with good prosperity achieved profits, with a compound 19-21-year growth rate of 104.9%. The proportion of profit-making companies in agricultural comprehensive / tourism retail / professional chain / professional services has also reached 100% / 100% / 86% / 80%.
Individual stock strategy: from top to bottom, under the background of large fluctuations in the global market pushing up risk aversion, large market capitalization leading companies can better provide a safety cushion with business stability and excess growth ability. According to the 21-year performance forecast, more than 80% of the leading companies have achieved profitability, and more than 60% have achieved growth above the industry average. There is always differentiation in the large consumer industry, so companies that have been profitable for 19-21 years and maintain positive growth are screened from the bottom up. There are 29.2% of the companies that have the opportunity to disclose the compound annual net profit, accounting for 29.2% of the total.
Investment advice
The A-share large consumer industry showed an overall recovery trend in 2021, and the proportion of profitable companies and the growth rate of the overall net profit of the industry were significantly improved. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, we have confidence in the future performance growth. Suggestions are: 1) food and beverage: a strong Baijiu sector with strong certainty, channel inventory and price maintenance. The price increase is smooth, and the high-end trend drives the beer sector with profit elasticity. 2) Household appliances: white electric track with continuous repair of demand and profit, sweeper track and integrated stove track with both certainty and growth. 3) Beauty care: to benefit from the cosmetics, gold and diamond with improved penetration. 4) Light industry manufacturing: the relaxation of policies will lead to the recovery of the real estate market and benefit the home sector.
Risk tips
Sample selection deviation; Epidemic disturbance; The actual performance is lower than expected.
