Key changes this week (03070311): ① fiscal expansion overweight: this year, the people’s Bank of China handed over the balance profits to the central government according to law, with a total amount of more than 1 trillion, increasing local transfer payments and alleviating capital pressure. ② The Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on the development plan of building energy conservation and green buildings in the 14th five year plan, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic in new buildings in China will be 50gw by 2025. ③ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) from January to February 2022, the total profit increased by more than 60% year-on-year. ④ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) invested Hefei Jinghe integration held a conference on the science and innovation board. ⑤ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) issue annual report. ⑥ In February, the scale of social financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan.
Core view:
(1) pay attention to photovoltaic building materials and green building materials. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on the development plan of building energy conservation and green buildings in the 14th five year plan. From the perspective of building materials, it is suggested to pay attention to: the promotion of high-performance doors and windows, the integration of building photovoltaic, high-performance concrete, the integration of structural insulation, and the first use of green building materials in government projects. The 13th five year plan focuses on the total amount and stock. For example, green construction accounts for 50% of new buildings, the area of existing buildings + public energy-saving transformation exceeds 600 million square meters, and energy conservation accounts for 60% of existing residential buildings. The 14th five year plan pays more attention to specific ways of energy conservation, such as requiring the fabricated type to account for 30% of new buildings, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic installed capacity is 50 million KW, The new geothermal energy construction area is 100 million square meters, and the replacement rate of renewable energy has increased from 6% in 2020 to 8%. The task decomposition is more detailed and the landing has direction. In the context of double carbon, the “14th five year plan” starts the era of green construction and high growth. When “carbon” emission becomes a part of the cost, photovoltaic building materials (such as BIPV, photovoltaic glass) and green building materials (energy-saving doors and windows, thermal insulation integration, high-performance concrete, etc.) can find a balance between strategic tasks and economy, and the promotion has a foundation. Focus on [ Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) ] [ Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) ] [ Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] [ Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ].
(2) continue to be optimistic about the to C retail model, and be optimistic about just need support + real estate boom repair. Superimposed on the slowdown of hardcover, we continue to be optimistic about the retail and distribution model and pay attention to cash flow and profit margin. Core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit and concentric circle speed-up; Focus on [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] and [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] at the C-end.
(3) the start of construction accelerated in March, and the price of cement continued to rise: this week, the demand in the South recovered to 70-80%, and that in the North slowly rose to 2-40%. Since the beginning of spring, cement clinker along the Yangtze River Delta has been raised four times, with a total of 110 yuan / ton, and Nanjing Cement rose 20-30 yuan / ton this week. Inventory fell for four consecutive weeks, currently 60.6% and 59.8% in the same period last year.
(4) the real estate chain is expected to stabilize and recover from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from “small launch and stable expectation” to “high-frequency launch and heavy landing”. The end of the policy is gradually transitioned to the end of the market. The small cycle of real estate is expected to recover, and the data of sales, commencement, construction and completion are gradually improved. The dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest paying attention to two spaces: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space.
(5) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof. Growth + cycle focus on the water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus on [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ], stability + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ].
(6) glass inventory continued to rise, with a total of 50.72 million weight boxes of original films this week, an increase of 8.56% over last week. It is suggested to closely follow up the capital repair of the real estate chain, the recovery of completion demand and cost support, and the relevant subject [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ].
(7) new materials throughout the year: photovoltaic glass, carbon fiber, glass fiber, UTG glass, wind power grouting slurry, medicinal glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; Risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation
