Main points:
The growth rate of listed pig enterprises is differentiated, and pig breeding stocks trade time for space.
① pig prices fell by 2.2% on a week-on-week basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.1 yuan / kg, down 2.2% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.28 yuan / kg, down 1.9% on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 517.85 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 193.5 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs dropped again, and the willingness to make up the hurdles was flat on a week-on-week basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (3.4-3.10): the proportion of domestic pigs in 90kg nationwide accounted for 7.42%, the week on week ratio decreased by 0.47 percentage points, and the epidemic situation fell back to the bottom area; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 400 yuan / head, which was basically the same on a weekly basis, up 160% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1632 yuan / head, which was the same on a weekly basis, up 31.8% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ From January to February 2022, the main listed pig enterprises were listed, with a year-on-year growth rate of differentiation. From January to February in 2022, January to February in 2022, from January to February in January to February in 2022, from high to low, the order in which the number of thousands of listings (thousands of thousands of thousands in the first two months of January to February in the year from January to February is from high to low: from high to low in the order from high to low in the order from high to low: the Lingnan Eco&Culture-Tourism Co.Ltd(002717) 17171 Lingnan Eco&Culture-Tourism Co.Ltd(002717) 14\ 66.8, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 253, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 207, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 138, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) 77, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 22; The year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate from high to low is in the order of high to low order from high to low, with Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 63 124 -13%, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) -18%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) -20%. ④ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The production capacity inflection point of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of fertile sows in China has decreased by 7% from July last year to January this year. Since February this year, the pig price has remained depressed. We expect the number of fertile sows to continue to decline month on month. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience a bottom grinding stage in 2022, and pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. We estimate the average market value of each pig enterprise with the expected slaughter volume in 2022, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5594 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4800 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1642 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2480 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2099 yuan. The valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is in the bottom area, so we suggest to pay active attention to it.
In January, the renewal volume of Bai Yu’s ancestors increased by 40% year-on-year, and the price of Huang Yu rose and fell week on week.
① in January 2022, the renewal of Baiyu ancestors increased by 39.8% year-on-year. In the 9th week of 2022 (2.28-3.6), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 23.3 yuan / set, with a decrease of 12.7% on a weekly basis; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 1.105 million sets, down 10.5% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 9750 yuan / ton, up 1.0% week on week. The China Poultry Industry Association announced that in January 2022, 130600 sets of white feather ancestors were renewed nationwide, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose and fell week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of March 10, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 6.28 yuan / kg, up 6.6% on a weekly basis and down 9.1% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.72 yuan / kg, up 0.8% on a weekly basis and down 7.2% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of native chicken was 8.49 yuan / kg, down 2.3% month on week and 0.2% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 8.23 yuan / kg, up 5.4% on a weekly basis and 7.2% on a year-on-year basis.
The prosperity of swine vaccine remained low in the first two months, focusing on the progress of non plague vaccine.
In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of batch issuance data of swine vaccine was 27.9% for porcine circadian vaccine, 9.3% for classical swine fever vaccine, 5.1% for foot-and-mouth vaccine, 8.3% for diarrhea vaccine, 14.1% for porcine parvovirus vaccine, 14.7% for highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine and 40.4% for Porcine Pseudorabies vaccine. From January to February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of batch issuance data of swine vaccine was from high to low: highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine 4.2%, foot-and-mouth vaccine – 11.5%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 25.5%, porcine circovirus vaccine – 31.4%, diarrhea vaccine – 49.4%, classical swine fever vaccine – 50.3% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 67.1%. We believe that the pig price is still at the bottom stage in 2022, and the prosperity of pig vaccine may remain low. It is suggested to focus on the progress of non plague vaccine.
The commercialization of genetically modified organisms is gradually approaching, which was announced in the March report of the US Department of agriculture and the Chinese Ministry of agriculture.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in March predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.2%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.2 percentage points lower than that in February, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in March: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 4.83 million tons, which is the same as that in February and 3.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. ③ Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in March predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 24.7%, 3.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that predicted in February; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from 20 / 21, up 0.3 percentage points from the predicted value in February, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12.
According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in March: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, which is the same as that in February, a decrease of 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 20202021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by the exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of the factory in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
