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At the early stage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the US Department of Agriculture said that it was "temporarily difficult to assess the impact of the conflict on global food". As the wind vane of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) estimation, the market expects USDA to evaluate the core Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , especially wheat and corn as soon as possible.
On Thursday, the USDA released its monthly supply and demand report, which first mentioned the impact of the conflict on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and demand: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand in the region and the world.
In terms of wheat production, as the global harvest of 21 / 22 is coming to an end and the impact of the war is limited, USDA raised the global wheat production forecast to 77852 million tons, higher than the 77642 million tons estimated in February. Due to the increase of Australia's production forecast, Ukraine's 33 million tons forecast remains unchanged, and Russia slightly reduced 340000 tons to 75.16 million tons; In terms of wheat trade, USDA estimated that the global wheat export in the year of 21 / 22 was 203 million tons, lower than the 206 million tons estimated in February. Among them, Ukraine's export estimate was reduced by 4 million tons to 20 million tons, and Russia's export estimate was reduced by 3 million tons to 32 million tons. The former was reduced due to the interruption of Black Sea trade, and the latter due to the risk of conflict and sanctions. The incremental exports of Australia and India partially supplemented the shortage of wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine. The sluggish export makes the inventory stay in the main producing country. The wheat inventory in Ukraine is estimated to be 5.01 million tons in the current season, 2.01 million tons in February and 1.12 million tons in 20 / 21. Russia's wheat inventory in the current season is estimated to be 13.09 million tons, 10.63 million tons in February and 11.38 million tons in 20 / 21; In terms of global wheat supply and demand, the ratio of wheat storage to consumption was 35.76% in 21 / 22, 35.3% in February and 37.09% in 20 / 21.
Similar to wheat, the war did not affect the global corn production in the year of 21 / 22. It is estimated to be 1.206 billion tons this month, higher than the estimated 1.205 billion tons in February. The output of Ukraine decreased slightly by 100000 tons to 41.9 million tons, and Russia did not make an estimate; In terms of corn trade, USDA estimated that the global corn export in the year 21 / 22 was 199.9 million tons, lower than the estimated 203.7 million tons in February, but still higher than 181.8 million tons in the year 20 / 21. Among them, the export estimate of Ukraine was reduced by 6 million tons to 27.5 million tons, and Russia did not make an estimate; Similar to wheat, corn retention pushed up Ukraine's ending inventory, which was estimated to be 4.35 million tons in March, 1.45 million tons in February and 830000 tons in 20 / 21; In terms of global supply and demand, the ratio of corn storage to consumption was 25.15% in 21 / 22, 25.29% in February and 25.61% in 20 / 21.
In summary, USDA believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the tense trade flow of wheat and corn in the current season, but the total global supply was not affected, and there was a structural and regional shortage in the market. As the year draws to a close, we are more concerned about the impact of the conflict on spring sowing in the two countries and the recovery of the Black Sea and ports. The US Department of agriculture will make the first assessment of the supply and demand of wheat and corn in 22 / 23 in early May.
In addition, the market is concerned about the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on global vegetable oil supply. In terms of global output, USDA estimated that the global vegetable oil output in the 21st / 22nd year was 211.44 million tons, lower than the 213.2 million tons estimated in February. Rapeseed oil (related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine) was reduced by 20000 tons to 28.28 million tons compared with the February estimate, and sunflower oil was reduced by 960000 tons to 21.11 million tons; In terms of trade flow, the global rapeseed oil export in the quarter fell by 50000 tons to 5.51 million tons compared with the estimate in February, and the sunflower oil fell by 1.18 million tons to 13.35 million tons.
The estimated output of rapeseed in February was 13.37 million tons, which was higher than the estimated output of USDA in February; The global sunflower seed export in 21 / 22 is estimated to be 3.1 million tons, lower than the estimated 3.82 million tons in February. The impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on global oil and oil is concentrated in sunflower oil, which is consistent with our research on the industrial side.
Risk warning: there is a risk of deviation between global weather changes and the predicted data of third-party institutions and the actual situation
