1. The continuous outflow of foreign capital and the damage of sentiment led to the decline of the sector. Food and beverage fell 2.06% this week, but still outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index (- 4.00%) by 1.94 percentage points, but ranked third (3 / 31) among all primary sub sectors. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the food and beverage sector has continued to callback, and market pessimism has spread due to the impact of international conflict, rising commodity prices, economic downturn and the full outbreak of the epidemic. The continuous large outflow of foreign capital in a short time and the irrational reduction of some funds are important triggers for the decline of the sector. Since February 18th, the north of the food and beverage sector has been running out of funds of about 9 billion 300 million yuan, of which Baijiu, dairy products and beer sectors are flowing out of 89, 11 and 200 million yuan respectively. The core of the sector, such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , has been outflowing 52, 27, 11, 11 and 200 million yuan respectively. In addition to the food and beverage sector, during this period, the northward capital of non bank finance, banking, chemical industry, automobile and other sectors also flowed out about 9.3 billion yuan, 7.6 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan and 5.6 billion yuan respectively. Affected by this, the SW non bank finance, banking, chemical industry and automobile index fell by 9.4%, 6.8%, 5.2%, 5.3% and 9.3% respectively. This week, the food and beverage segments industry has declined to varying degrees, with Baijiu, processed foods and meat products dropping the lowest, down 0.64%, 1.55% and 3.08% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, this week, Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) led the rise (up 33.83%), followed by Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 12.80%), Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (+ 11.51%), Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture Co.Ltd(002910) (+ 10.33%) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (+ 8.43%).
2, monthly data to boost market sentiment, short-term optimistic about the overall repair opportunities of the Baijiu sector, and continue to recommend Moutai + regional real estate wine leading. This week Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and other issued the 2021 performance notice / express report or 2022 1-2 business data report, the data show that the Baijiu industry still maintains steady growth, and the trend of accelerating the expansion of the industry’s upward and secondary high-end market is not changed, so as to boost market sentiment. It also confirms our judgment that the leading liquor enterprises probably made a good start in the first quarter. We believe that in the short term, the Baijiu sector is affected by the outflow of foreign capital and the overall callback of the whole market, which leads to the obvious callback of the whole sector and the adjustment of the overall elastic space. It is optimistic about the opportunities for the restoration of high-end products such as the leading enterprises in fenkou / Guxi real estate and the leading enterprises in fenzi / Guxi real estate in the future. In the long run, we still believe that 2022 is a structurally differentiated market. We should select individual stocks and continue to be optimistic about the great opportunity of secondary high-end capacity expansion. Continue to recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and sub high-end regional leaders from the perspectives of fundamentals, valuation, performance certainty and market expectations, such as Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , and pay attention to the catalysis of changes in Xinjiang on Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) .
3. The fermentation of Omicron epidemic affects consumption scenes such as catering, and home consumption related industries are expected to pick up. This week, the number of new confirmed cases per day continued to increase, the epidemic situation in first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen was severe, and sporadic outbreaks also occurred in Jilin, Shandong, Hebei, Shaanxi and other places. The high infectivity of Omicron exacerbated the uncertainty of this round of epidemic situation, which will impose great restrictions on Q2 drinking, travel, sports and other consumption scenes, and catering consumption will also be affected. The demand side of various sub industries of popular products is expected to differentiate, and the demand for condiments, beer, halogen products and soft drinks with high relevance to catering may be weak. Under the concern of the epidemic, residents have a significant willingness to hoard goods. Quick frozen rice noodles, prefabricated vegetables and leisure food are expected to increase in short-term demand. The healthy and nutritional attribute of dairy products is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the demand side is expected to remain stable. On the cost side, commodity prices continued to rise. Since January 1 this year, the price of ice oil distribution futures has increased by 40% and 22.32% since February. CBOT soybean futures prices rose 35.28% since November 30 last year, up 4.8% from the highest price last year. On the raw material side, sunflower seeds, soybean meal, palm oil, barley and corn starch are all at a high level. In terms of packaging materials, pet, rebar and other prices continue to rise this week. The prices of raw materials and packaging materials continue to remain high, and the profit side of the industry is also facing a test. After the Spring Festival, February and March are the off-season for most popular products companies. Under the influence of the epidemic, the demand is damaged, and the opportunity of the sector still needs to wait for the real recovery of consumer demand, but the valuation of many stocks has fallen to a reasonable level. At present, we suggest selecting stocks from bottom to top, focusing on the industry leaders who are expected to increase their share under the double test of pricing power, strong anti risk ability and demand cost, For example, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , etc.
4. Update of industry and company views:
(1) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the management is proactive, and the 14th five year plan company adheres to seeking progress while maintaining stability. Recently, the company held an investor exchange meeting. Chairman Zeng Congqin and all the management had in-depth communication with the capital market. The company defines the “5111” development goal of the group and the “2118” development goal of the joint stock company during the 14th Five Year Plan period (that is, to achieve the production capacity of 200000 tons of raw wine, the storage capacity of 1 million tons of base wine, the revenue of more than 100 billion and the total profit of 80 billion by the end of the 14th five year plan); In 2022, the group maintained double-digit growth, and the growth rate of joint-stock companies was higher than that of the group; The company plans to maintain double-digit growth in the next four years, and the joint stock company plans to increase the high-quality path of 10 billion a year on average. The company also conducted in-depth communication on brand building, channel management, personnel arrangement, business ideas and other aspects. Meanwhile, this week, the company issued a performance announcement for 2021, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of about 15%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 23.35 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of about 17%). Recently, the market is pessimistic about the company, and the company’s valuation has been suppressed. In the long run, we believe that under the background of the price reduction of 1000 yuan and the company’s high performance base, we should appropriately reduce the elastic expectation of the company’s performance in the future. However, the company’s brand strength is outstanding, and the demand for core products is benign. In the future, it will continue to be large-scale in the price band of 1000 yuan, and continue to be optimistic about the steady growth of the company.
(2) Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) : steadily raise prices, continue to innovate and expand consumption scenarios. Recently, the company’s share price has fallen sharply, which is mainly related to the external market environment and market concerns about the consumer demand of the pre blending industry. Since the price increase announcement was issued in late December, the company began to adjust the price system, first increasing the ex factory price, then adjusting the 2C end retail price of e-commerce, and the third step is offline retail price. Since the price of previous e-commerce activities was often lower than the retail price of offline terminals, affecting the purchase intention of terminals, the company adjusted the online price first.
At present, the retail price of e-commerce has been adjusted. After the offline terminal retail price is increased, the channel profit will be thickened. Before the offline price adjustment is completed, the channel shipment data may be affected in the short term. In addition, the company continued to promote the launch of new products. On March 4, Rio light enjoyment series was launched, which is a new upgrade of the original low sugar series. The target consumer group is busy urban women. In March, new products were limited to the market in spring, breaking the tradition of the original Cherry Blossom series, playing Rico with the popularity trend, releasing the flavor of peach blossom rice wine, bringing a romantic spring drinking experience to consumers. In the long run, the development trend of low tide drinking industry remains unchanged. The company always leads the development of the industry and continues to cultivate consumption habits. It is recommended to pay attention to it.
(3) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : the short-term sentiment amplifies the decline, and the long-term logic remains unchanged. The recent stock price adjustment of the company is mainly due to several reasons: 1) the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the depreciation of the Russian Ruble; 2) After the Spring Festival, the price of molasses in the South rebounded greatly, and the current price is more than 1500 yuan / ton; 3) Appreciation of RMB exchange rate; 4) The net profit margin base of statement 21q1 is high. We believe that the above factors have limited impact on the company’s fundamentals, and uncertain emotions have a great impact on the stock price. Russian subsidiaries account for less than 10% of the company’s production capacity and output value, and the impact is controllable. At present, the company has completed most of the procurement of molasses and continued to promote the construction of hydrolyzed sugar project. The impact of molasses price fluctuation on the company will be weakened in the future. At present, the RMB exchange rate has dropped, and the company’s export business grew well from January to February. Although the company is affected by uncertain factors such as overseas political environment and exchange rate fluctuations in the short term, as a leading enterprise in the yeast industry, the company has benefited from the growing demand for yeast and its derivatives at home and abroad for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to it.
5, industry rating and investment strategy: Overall, the trend of steady and steady improvement of Baijiu industry is maintained. The price increase of popular products has brought marginal improvement to the performance of the sector. In the long run, the market share is expected to continue to focus on leading enterprises. After the valuation falls, the investment value of leading enterprises is highlighted. Based on this, we maintain the rating of the food and beverage industry as “recommended”.
Baijiu: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (recommended), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (recommended), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (recommended), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (attention), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (recommended), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (attention), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (recommended), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (recommended), Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (attention), Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (recommended), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (attention), and concern (etc.).
The popular goods: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 568 (recommended), etc.
Short term recommendation Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , prefabricated dishes, etc.
6. Risk tips: 1) the recovery of catering channels affected by the epidemic is lower than expected; 2) Macroeconomic fluctuations have hindered the pace of consumption upgrading; 3) Industry policy changes lead to increased competition; 4) The price of raw materials has risen sharply; 5) Focus on the company’s performance or less than expected; 6) Food safety incidents, etc.
