According to statistics, the probability of A-Shares starting well after new year's Day is as high as 70%!
on January 3, just before the opening, the two voltage regulators of the A-share market, Ning circuit and Mao circuit, also welcomed heavy stimulation. First, the news of Maotai price increase. According to media reports, from January 1, 2022, the prices of two products, new treasure Maotai liquor and old Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15, will increase. The retail guide price of Maotai new treasures was raised by 100 yuan, from 4499 yuan to 4599 yuan; Maotai aged liquor 15 increased from 4999 to 5999 yuan. The strength is not great. After this news came out, there were great changes in the Maotai terminal market. In the past 15 years, the original box of Maotai soared by 280 yuan a day to 7200 yuan.
In terms of new energy vehicles, there are amazing positive news. According to the data, Tesla delivered 308600 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2021, breaking the previous single quarter record. In terms of Byd Company Limited(002594) , in 2021, 593745 new energy passenger vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) in 2021, the performance soared by more than 400%.
As we all know, Ning track and Mao track have a great weight in the A-share index. If these two tracks can stabilize, the market will be basically healthy.
Maotai prices soared in a single day
On this new year's day, there was a heavy price increase in Maotai.
According to media reports, from January 1, 2022, the prices of new rare Maotai liquor and aged Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15 will be increased. The retail guide price of Maotai new treasures was raised by 100 yuan, from 4499 yuan to 4599 yuan; Maotai aged liquor 15 increased from 4999 to 5999 yuan. But the news does not seem to have been officially endorsed.
In addition, there is a heavy message. Maotai lunar new year wine is coming! On January 5, the tiger Mao press conference will be held as scheduled! Compared with last year's "dystocia cow", it came out only in April. This year's tiger grass came out quite smoothly. According to the "No. 2 sauce forecast", with the birth of tiger grass and the demand at the end of the new year, the price is expected to remain high, and the overall Zodiac price may also rise next.
On December 31, 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the production and operation in 2021. The company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.2% year-on-year, including about 93.2 billion yuan of Maotai liquor and about 12.6 billion yuan of series liquor; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%. Reasonably speaking, this performance is slightly higher than expected. However, compared with the market value of 2.6 trillion, it is still somewhat overvalued. After all, a P / E ratio of more than 50 times corresponds to a growth rate of only about 10 points. However, due to the existence of price increase expectations, the market has a high tolerance for Maotai's overvalued value.
Many securities companies still believe that Maotai is worth owning. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that the demand for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is still strong, and the company's ability to control channels and interact with consumers is also rapidly improving. In addition, the company's potential price increase ability always exists, and there is still considerable room for price increase in the future. However, it is still unknown how the subsequent consumption tax will affect the valuation and whether the recent rumors of luxury tax will affect the valuation.
Ning track also blew up
In fact, it is not only better for Ning track, but also higher prosperity. On January 3, Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) came heavy news.
Tesla announced its annual sales on Sunday local time. According to the data, Tesla delivered 308600 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2021, breaking the previous single quarter record. In 2021, Tesla delivered a total of 936172 vehicles, an increase of 87% compared with 499647 in 2020, which exceeded the previous estimates of all analysts. Tesla also rose more than 5% before the market.
On January 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) released vehicle sales data. In 2021, 730093 passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, including 593745 new energy passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounts for more than 81%. Among new energy passenger vehicles, the sales volume of EV pure electric vehicle and DM hybrid vehicle is 320810 and 272935.
In addition, from the performance released by Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , the prosperity of the industry is still very amazing. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 890-920 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 318-332%, deducting the non net profit of RMB 880-830 million, with a year-on-year increase of 400-418%. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 340-370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 243-273%, and the non net profit deducted was 330-360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 369-412%.
According to Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analysis, the new energy vehicle market in 2021 has gradually transitioned from policy driven to demand driven. Looking back at the end of 2020, in the face of effective epidemic control, the new energy vehicles declined by 40% the next year, and the sales volume soared by 30% / 18% month on month in November / December 2020, resulting in certain fluctuations in sales volume and penetration rate in January / February of 21. However, the penetration rate rose rapidly to 10% in March, surpassing the penetration rate of 9% in December 2020. Subsequently, due to the emergence and large volume of excellent popular models, the penetration rate continued to rise, up to 20.8% in November. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle market in 2022 is expected to repeat the growth trend in 2021.
(brokerage China)
