Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 4.88%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.88 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. We believe that in the short term, the epidemic will counterattack and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions and concerns: ① gold jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction promotes the continuous rise of gold price and stimulates the consumption of gold jewelry. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Market review: last week (March 7-march 13), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 4.88%, and the retail trade index lost 0.88 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 20th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 9.07%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 11.05%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.98 percentage points, ranking 16th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods were + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose US $17.23 to US $198859/oz, and silver rose US $0.15 to US $25.83/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in February 2022, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 17.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%, and the turnover of jewelry was 7.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47%. In terms of beauty makeup, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was good in February, and the performance of Chinese brands Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Winona was strong; In terms of jewelry, Hong Kong brands performed well, domestic and foreign brands had ups and downs, and domestic brands designcircles and zhouliufu performed well.
Important announcements of listed companies: medical thinking health holdings Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) repurchase progress China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) reduction progress Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) performance reports.
Important events in the industry: ① the China Consumer Association issued a report on the protection of consumers’ rights and interests in the online field; ② The food and drug administration suggested that the “xiaojindun” mark of children’s cosmetics has nothing to do with the quality.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
